Please watch the video. The basic monthly analysis begins immediately, the weekly analysis begins at 04:33, and the daily analysis begins at 6:59. My acknowledgement of subscriber additions and my mea culpa begins at 10:29.
The monthly chart showing the potential pivot for MNQZ23 is shown here:
If that pivot does not complete, we could still see an outcome as I mentioned a couple of weeks back:
We did NOT quite get to the weekly projection, but we did get close:
We seemingly created a pivot at 14587.25 and closed with a higher low on Friday (the end of THAT week). What could potentially happen to the upside would be this (with a target high projection of 17669.25 ( a new high)):
On a daily chart basis, it is possible on the bullish side to reach the 15160 area in the coming couple of weeks:
There is also a potential BEARISH projection one might make if sellers dominate the coming days also if the markets cannot rally above Friday’s highs( and would result in a three-drives-to-a-bottom pattern:
That number is consistent with previous weekly hourly and daily analysis that would end with prices in the 13800 range.
WHAT is REALLY going to happen? I don’t know.
I do know this. Equity premiums to bonds are at all-time highs including the dot-com bubble. Any wrinkles in U.S. Treasury rates will ultimately unsettle investors looking for stable returns, and those equity markets should ultimately correct to reduce that disparity. On John Hussman’s Twitter (X, Musk-er or whatever) feed, there is an interesting podcast from Merryn Somerset Webb in which she discusses Jeremy Grantham’s projection about the weakness in both stocks and bonds and how many companies in the Russell 2000 index and even the NASDAQ are quite fundamentally broken, and that mean reversion will be the norm in US markets for some time to come.
With the U.S. Congress now having no spending cap, spending increasing at $ 2 trillion a year, interest payments approaching $1 trillion dollars every year (and the #2 item on the Federal spending budget, heading to #1 like a bullet), the end will not be pretty in all likelihood. I began to rant about this in 2008, but no one was paying attention until now. We also have war on at least two fronts ( the Middle East and Ukraine/Russia) and potentially Iran/Israel and China/Taiwan on the horizon. If we expect to fight a four front conflict with our fiscal and monetary conditions as they are (and open borders beyond that), it is hard to paint any sort of pretty picture, but that is just the way it is at present. Seems a lot like the Roman Empire in the fifth century A.D. doesn’t it?
Most of this is government-created and politically motivated and could be fixed with a stroke of a pen. I am not in charge of voting process, but if Americans get fed up enough, this can all be corrected. The longer we wait, however, the more difficult it will get.
If the Fed cuts rates in fear of economic damage, MNQZ23 could rally. If rates continue higher, we know there will be damage to equities, fixed income, banking, insurance, and the general economy as lending becomes even more difficult.
It all depends on who shows up and what actions are taken by traders, investors, and institutional money managers.
That is all for now. I have to take care of other business, but over the coming week I will invest time in building content for part 3C of “Setting Up The Trade”. It takes time to run charts and to write. I just wish it could profit me to do it. I would do more if it could.
Thank you for supporting this Substack blog. The increase in subscribership is humbling and greatly appreciated. Have a great week this week!
