Monthly MNQH23 Chart
Weekly MNQH23 Chart
Daily MNQH23 Chart
240-Minute MNQH23 Chart
So many of you don’t watch the video that I will give you a quick shortcut. If you want the true meat of this video, slide over to the 08:30 mark and watch from there.
At some point in time this year or so, we could be anywhere between 7236 and 14744 or higher and we could perhaps see both. That is just how insane things just could get over the next year or two.
These markets, including MNQH23, have long since forgotten about profitability and value fundamentals and run from the Fed pump.
Here once again is my problem with all of it. Check out this chart:
The Taylor Rule to Fed Funds Rate Spread is shown here (nerd out all you want). This chart (and for now I assume it is right based on the Fed’s own numbers, skewed though they might very well be), basically indicates that Fed policy is still too loose to maintain the core PCE index rate (personal consumption expenditures) at 2%.
There are several things that are disturbing in this data:
Janet Yellen (US Treasury Secretary) and Jerome Powell (US Federal Reserve Chairman) have both said at some point that that 2% number will likely have to be abandoned as rates seem not to be controllable at that rate. The reason for that is, of course, that Congress continues to outspend any budget it creates (something I don’t think it has done strongly to any degree since 2000, and certainly not since 2007). Congress has not settled on a budget in years and continues to create new “budget resolutions” that used to last for months but now, because of the crippling USD 31 trillion in debt, have to be made only WEEKS apart now.
Shadowstats dot com still indicates that inflation numbers calculated at pre-1980 methodologies are still around 14%. Given that, we are well beyond 2% PCE in terms of the spread for the Taylor Rule. Who knows where we truly stand?
What makes that even more insane is that the Fed and Treasury continue to print money and Congress refuses to hold a debt ceiling, which causes inflation to continue to rage. Inflation, after all, is caused by flawed or malfeasant monetary policy. I don’t care how you hand-wave the “cost-push and demand-pull” nonsense. If you print too much money to chase too few goods (and those goods are restrained by government-created shortages designed for a political purpose, prices ARE GOING TO RISE. A fifth-grader can understand that. Sad thing is, most kids in the fifth grade (perhaps all the way to post-doctorate studies) are taught that, leading to electing criminal politicians who exploit this concept for their own plans of economic control.
We don’t even know if the unemployment numbers or manufacturing numbers are real or manipulated either. The Fed regional bank directors seem to be telling a toon of weaker employment and slower economic growth, regardless of what the Bureau of Labor Statistics and the Federal Reserve seem to be indicating.
Loose Fed policy (meaning rates not being high enough) and money printing create the ultimate slipknot to hang the Federal budget into only being able to pay interest and NOT FOR ANYTHING ELSE. Not only will we not be able to pay for Social Security, Medicaid, Medicare, SNAP assistance, or other countless entitlements, we will not be able to fund NATIONAL DEFENSE. We would be beyond bankrupt, as is described in this article. I want to post it again so you will let that concept sink in. It is happening now.
When I hear the President pointing fingers at Republicans for wanting to sunset Social Security and other entitlement, I have to laugh at both political parties as the horse manure flies in the joint chamber.
Let me help y’all out (and all of you I have read lamenting that someone is going to take your entitlement from you). THEY ARE ALL BEING SUNSETTED (including Federal pensions, state pensions, and local and municipal pensions, nearly all of which are underfunded because of government overspending and money printing. Criminal governmental overspending and graft are going to sunset all of it, because their budgets and their governments will collapse from debt, largely created at the Federal level. It is not a question of if now, it is a question of WHEN.
Until we get control of the fiscal and monetary criminality at every level of government and free our economy to produce goods, food and energy, and manufactured goods of all kinds, the end game draws nigh. Food and energy inflation alone, which is running hotter than 6 to 8 percent, will get worse as production cuts in oil overseas and restrictions on fertilizer hit here going forward. Markets need to be free again. Our own domestic energy and agriculture need to be freed from government malfeasance and malevolence. All of our problems our elitist politicians have created. When and if the Federal government collapses of its own weight, the states will again be able to produce their own needs for themselves. Those days may be tumultuous, but they are coming sooner than may think in my opinion.
I will remain agnostic in terms of trading, taking profits in either direction depending on what the market offers.
Have a great week everyone with trading and with all other aspects of life.
More comes soon.
