Price, Price Spread, Lagged Prive/volume Spread, and Binary Price/Volume Indicator
Price, Lagged Price Volume Indicator, and Total Volume With 50-period Moving Volume Average
Fibonacci price scale with targets
Thursday could be a crazy day, but the dynamics in Europe could set up something strange on an hourly basis that could make swing traders interested if they have an appetite for extreme risk ( something I don’t do to manage growth and risk parameters (my number one job).
Overnight the ECB became hawkish, and I am assuming the NQ and other markets rallied in anticipation of words from Jerome Powell this morning that rate hikes might be slower. That belief could get shattered on Thursday, which is why measuring a top or a bottom with the other wild swings related to economic announcements give traders the opportunity to exploit the wide price bars before today’s action.
Right now, MNQH23 is modestly bullish and could really into the New York open at 0930. It COULD hit a price structure snag very close to a VWAP line shown in red at 11231 which COULD (notice I did not say WILL) put a stop to the rally and cause institutional buyers to stall, if that happens, it could set up an AB=CD symmetrical short that ends up above 11016.50 somewhere.
Because of the complexity of that swing last night, the extended bounds of the upside are difficult to measure this morning. I set up the Fibs to stop right at 11230.25 since there is the structure from previous days of trading behind it.
If the market can stay above the VWAP line at 11170, it has a shot at 11230.25, 11259, and 11295.50. If not, then 11123.75 is not far away, and targets below that of 11094.50 and 11057.50 are possible.
I AM NOT RECOMMENDING THAT WILD SWING TRADE POSSIBILITY. All I am telling you is that in the era of bureaucratic lying and double-speak, such moves are possible simply because previous hourly swings in that chart you see are filled with wild trader swings based on previous pronouncements. You need to be careful out there. Even trading a spread trap in that environment is not a wise thing to do, even with carefully measured stops and targets.
If I see nothing that does not meet the trade parameters of my plan, I will not trade.
I was long early yesterday morning and left with a profit and went back to other business. We will see what happens today.
More will be coming soon.
Economic Data Courtesy of Econoday dot com
4-Week Bill Settlement
8-Week Bill Settlement
4-Month Bill Settlement
NFIB Small Business Optimism Index
6:00 AM ET
Jerome Powell Speaks
9:00 AM ET
Wholesale Inventories (Preliminary)
10:00 AM ET
4-Week Bill Announcement
11:00 AM ET
8-Week Bill Announcement
11:00 AM ET
4-Month Bill Announcement
11:00 AM ET
3-Yr Note Auction
1:00 PM ET