MNQH23 Hourly Analysis and For 01/19/2023 - My Way of Analyzing Potential Daily Price Ranges

Jobless Claims And The Philly Fed Manufacturing Index Are the big items with Housing Starts the next biggest. Fear and General confusion about inflation seems to have bears in control, but who knows?

David Buffalo

Jan 19, 2023

Price, Price Spread, Lagged Prive/volume Spread, and Binary Price/Volume Indicator

Price and Total Volume With 50-period Moving Volume Average

Fibonacci Price Scale With Targets

I could write for a couple of hours about what happened yesterday, and on the weekend I may explore it further.

Because Jerome Powell has made it difficult to remain bullish with his (in my opinion) correct decisions to manage rates higher, the rest of the Federal structure still lies about employment (BLS for example, with their 1 million jobs total in mid-year being slapped back to 10,000 by the St. Louis Fed and other Fed banks). Consumer inflation plus the outright theft of consumer income through new energy taxes make it hard for the consumer to spend. Then you have this chart:

Use of Consumer Credit has broken the 1985 record (right before all the Resolution Trust Corporation savings and loan debacle). The consumer is tapped out as credit card interest rates scale to 19% and beyond.

Add to that the (false in my opinion) fears of DEFLATION at the producer level (if you can believe yesterday’s PPI number), and all you have is “fear and loathing in the American economy”. The last shoe to fall will be lagging earnings, but we are still early in that game. If the consumer is tapped out, being shaken down and the tax office, and being throttled by governmental criminality through running the Treasury’s printing press at “11” to accelerate consumer price inflation, how can earnings really be any good, past, present, or future?

All I can say, with regard to MNQH23, we may see the selloff that started in Europe continue early on if the news is not favorable on either jobless claims or manufacturing activity. I would assume we could sink as low as 11359 this morning, and perhaps even 11250 if things really turn in the favor of the bears. If we can regain the 11509 VWAP line, however, we could see 11512 or 11565.50. Beyond that, we will simply need to see how positive news events if any, drive the buyers into the market again. If so, perhaps we could better 11640 and head back toward 11760 (That Fib level was snapped to the high, and it still showed 11760.74, though I am sure it is 11760.75)

Yesterday I took the first long based on my trade plan and saw it rally, but before it hit my target, I got booted as volume reversed and the selloff began. No harm was done as the stop protected me, but I will have to see what is available in the market that fits my trade plan. If nothing, then no trading will happen.

I know everybody wants a bullish reversal, but because we did not close above the 11721 VWAP line, we are STILL IN A DOWNTREND ON MNQH23. It is what it is. Things can change quickly in this goofy economic and political environment. The criminals and psychopaths still have a slight edge over the rest of us.

More will be coming soon.

Economic News Courtesy Of Econoday.com

3-Month Bill Settlement

6-Month Bill Settlement

Housing Starts and Permits
8:30 AM ET

Jobless Claims
8:30 AM ET

Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index
8:30 AM ET

Susan Collins Speaks
9:00 AM ET

EIA Natural Gas Report
10:30 AM ET

EIA Petroleum Status Report
11:00 AM ET

3-Month Bill Announcement
11:00 AM ET

6-Month Bill Announcement
11:00 AM ET

52-Week Bill Announcement
11:00 AM ET