Price, Price Spread, Lagged Prive/volume Spread, and Binary Price/Volume Indicator
Price and Total Volume With 50-period Moving Volume Average
Fibonacci Price Scale With Targets
Yesterday seemed to prove that the MNQH23 bulls wanted to take charge after durable goods orders and GDP seemed to provide hope that a future recession ( something I personally think we are in because of layoffs, potentially hidden by fraudulent data from Federal Reserve leadership, and more accurately reflected from data from the regional Fed banks).
The most important thing to take away from this is to only look at the technicals for market trading because sentiment at present seems to be working for the bulls, and we have breached the daily downtrend line that has existed since early 2022. Your opinion or even reality means nothing. Market action is the only thing that counts at the moment. The markets are reflecting what it thinks reality is and it basically doesn’t care what you think.
If we can remain above the 12042.75 VWAP line, then there is a good chance that the previous high of 12111.50 will be taken out, and potential highs of 12167 and 12237.75 are possible. The next truly major VWAP line is around 13080, so the potential for future gains is out here next week. Not sure how far traders might push the market higher if there is concentrated buying, as it is Friday, but there are larger gaps above to recapture for buyers.
On the other hand, if we cannot remain above 12042.75, chances are good that we push back toward 11938 and the previous swing low at 11907, potentially pulling back to 11851.25 and 11780.50.
What I want you to make note of with all the yellow lines is that there are concentrations of VWAP lines between 12042.75 all the way back to 11678.50 and below that seem to act as solid support under MNQH23, which might support the bullish argument. My only counterpoint to that is that action by the Fed could basically nuke that support, so all investors and traders need to be aware that the casino influence of easy money could get yanked at any time. If it does, this market could fold like a cheap suit to previous areas of support. Whatever framework, bullish or bearish, is fragile, as after a decade of the opiate of the printing press and “risk-free” money at 0% or lower, after inflation, the withdrawal symptoms of that drug can be violent.
This market is vastly manipulated, and until monetary stability and fiscal discipline is restored by Congress and the entire Federal government infrastructure, nothing is sure or stable.
Let's just see what happens. I was long, hit my target, and I left the trading platform before meeting with a CPA for other business matters. I am on the verge of adding yet another contract to the scaling process. If there is nothing to trade that meets my trade plan, I will stand down. If there is, I will manage my risk with stops and targets, and see what goes.
More will come soon.
Economic Data Courtesy of Econoday dot com
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