MNQH23 Hourly Analysis For 02/01/2023 - My Way of Analyzing Potential Daily Price Ranges

Tons of employment, FOMC rate and economic announcements, manufacturing and petroleum data announced today. Will the rally continue, explode higher, or once again given the toilet plunger move?

David Buffalo

Feb 01, 2023

Price, Price Spread, Lagged Price/Volume Spread, and Binary Price/Volume Indicator

Price and Total Volume With 50-period Moving Volume Average

Fibonacci Price Scale With Targets

Today among other key information, Jerome Powell will announce if any rate adjustments will be made to the Fed Funds Rate.

I have no idea, nor do I care, based on the way I perform analysis, whether rates remain steady, rise, or fall. I am going to focus on where volume and price momentum goes today.

If we can remain above 12070, odds are decent, given the gaps in VWAP lines above the swing highs, that we could easily hit 12156, 12233.50 and even 12332 or higher today or tomorrow if the rate hikes appear to be slackening off (which I personally believe will be a tragic mistake, but bankers and institutions need to kee the Wall Street casino open to promote the false illusion of wealth ).

If not, though there are myriad former VWAP lines between 12070 and 11938 (the most significant ones marked in yellow), it could still be a very short trip to the lows of 11871.25, and beyond to 11793.80 or lower.

What will happen? It all depends on who shows up. I personally think that most Federal level econometric data is being manipulated as the regional Fed banks have revealed in restatements. What is at risk is the subject of this month’s Austrian Magazine produced by the Mises Institute. It is the definition of the risk-adjusted time value of money. The Fed, Congress, Executive, and even Legislative Branches of the Federal government gave up on those concepts 110 years ago.

What remains now, after what appears to be the death of the petrodollar, the last vestige of value basis for the United States Dollar, is how it will be valued relative to the rest of the world which has seemed to find a way to grow, and continue to build value into their currencies at the same time. I think American political criminality has been the real problem with our economy. Future generations are going to have to repair the damage done over the last century, or this country will not have a sound economy again. That is what is being debated and traded on as we speak. Those people who run real businesses, and create cash-on-cash returns for their income and growth know that the equity markets are increasingly phony. Today’s action will likely demonstrate a little window into whether the countertrend rally will continue a bit longer, or whether some cold reality will face us going forward.

We shall see.

Yesterday was crazy with volume spikes, so I left early to take care of other business. I did have a profitable day though.

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