Price, Price Spread, Lagged Price/Volume Spread, and Binary Price/Volume Indicator
Price and Total Volume With 50-period Moving Volume Average
Fibonacci Price Scale With Targets WIDE RANGE
Fibonacci Price Scale With Targets NARROW RANGE
Though Jerome Powell continues to flash hawkish tones for rate increases, the markets generally consider the lessening rate hike amounts (0.25% this time on the Fed funds rate) as a signal that the casino is once again open for business.
All this is being done against the backdrop of the whir of U.S. Treasury printing presses, talks about spending another 1.2 trillion of de facto toilet paper dollars for omnibus spending, and people on the street worried about car payments, rent, and affording food. It is inscrutable, but it seems the market, once a discounter of future earnings growth and economic expansion, is now a money bag for institutions and Federal agencies to inflate, giving the illusion of wealth that rational people and Austrian economists can see through for what it is, a dream that cannot extend itself forever.
The market does seem to want to go higher, and if MNQH23 can remain above 12087.50, then it is possible if buyers push, for this market to take out 12606.50, followed by potential highs of 12667 and 12704.50. If economic data dampens the hope or delusion of lower rates, then it is possible for 12529.50 or 12482 to be hit, perhaps 12446.94.
The wide-range chart shows you the huge gaps in commercial interests above the current price action. If euphoria continues, it should be relatively easy to take out 12663 and even 13130. As I mentioned weeks ago, the perception of cheap rates will drive MNQH23 perhaps even into a 14 handle if the bulls run. The real question is, is the market really worth that much, given the fiscal and monetary peril the U.S. economy is in? Sadly, it seems only the Fed and Congress know, and all they know is how to accelerate the printing press, as neither political party cares about the condition of the currency or any fiscal responsibility.
I was long yesterday and took my quota, and walked away early, not trading the Fed announcement. I will look for a good trade this morning, but if none is found, I will simply walk away.
I will not trade news currently, I will trade what the charts allow me given my strategy.
All I am going to tell you folks who invest long-only is to be hedged somehow. The insanity is not over yet. In fact, it may only be the beginning.
More soon.
Economic Data from Econoday dot com
3-Month Bill Settlement
6-Month Bill Settlement
Challenger Job-Cut Report
7:30 AMÂ ET
Jobless Claims
8:30 AMÂ ET
Productivity and Costs
8:30 AMÂ ET
Factory Orders
10:00 AMÂ ET
EIA Natural Gas Report
10:30 AMÂ ET
3-Month Bill Announcement
11:00 AMÂ ET
6-Month Bill Announcement
11:00 AMÂ ET
4-Week Bill Auction
11:30 AMÂ ET
8-Week Bill Auction
11:30 AMÂ ET
Fed Balance Sheet
4:30 PMÂ ET