Price, Price Spread, Lagged Price/Volume Spread, and Binary Price/Volume Indicator
Price and Total Volume With 50-period Moving Volume Average
Fibonacci Price Scale With Targets
If reality were reflected in bonds and money markets in the USA and around the world, they might better reflect what shadowstats dot com shows for real CPI at the street level, which is running about 14.2 to 14.5%. Those numbers reflect the way inflation was calculated before 1980 when all components were counted.
In the American Uniparty world of today, we are told that inflation is falling in spite of the fact that discretionary income is collapsing at 1932-style rates and consumer debt is at all-time highs. Governments run on narratives, and what we will have to see today is how strongly the narrative is accepted by traders and institutions. Yesterday, things were bullish, even though sellers lasted long enough to boot me from a long position before running, which can happen a certain percentage of the time.
Is disinflation showing up in places or perhaps deflation? That answer is probably yes, but on street-level consumer terms, with energy taxes and inflation in consumer staples still rising, not too many people are seeing it pass through.
What will happen today? I have no idea, but let’s look at both sides of price action for any clues.
If MNQH23 can remain above 12573.25, odds would favor a rally beyond 12576.25 to 12602 to perhaps 12634.50 or perhaps higher. If not, and if MNQH23 cannot hold 12753.25, then it should be an easy trip back to 12482, 12456.25, and 12423.75 or lower. I would think the slide could be stopped before 12329.50 by hitting price structure support around 12376.25, but only time will tell.
I will trade in the direction that best reflects price momentum and volume, remembering today to let levels be taken out in either direction and allowing the pullback to take my limit order before running to its measured target. If I do that, the rather rapid scaling journey of late will continue. If not, the stop won’t kill me and I will return again tomorrow.
More is coming soon.
Economic Data Courtesy of Econoday dot com
4-Week Bill Settlement
8-Week Bill Settlement
4-Month Bill Settlement
NFIB Small Business Optimism Index
6:00 AM ET
CPI
8:30 AM ET
Lorrie Logan Speaks
11:00 AM ET
4-Week Bill Announcement
11:00 AM ET
8-Week Bill Announcement
11:00 AM ET
4-Month Bill Announcement
11:00 AM ET
Patrick Harker Speaks
1:00 PM ET
John Williams Speaks
2:05 PM ET