Price, Price Spread, Lagged Price/Volume Spread, and Binary Price/Volume Indicator
Price and Total Volume With 50-period Moving Volume Average
Fibonacci Price Scale With Targets
I departed from the typical Fibonacci scale measurement today to capture yesterday’s highs and lows. The reason for that is that there are so many candlestick wicks on the bull and bear sides of the market that any push by buyers and sellers could easily take them out today. No one knows for sure, but I think it would be unwise to discount such a possibility.
CPI reporting had the strange effect of running almost the entire bullish and bearish price ranges I estimated yesterday, which more than anything else tends to prove the general confusion that most traders and institutions have. They really don’t know what the true inflation is (and in my opinion, it is far higher in reality than is reported, at least in pre-1980-calculation terms). In the end, however, traders probably still think that a pivot is ahead and that the Fed will back off and let the free money (after inflation is removed from the interest rate) flow back into the market casino.
As a result, after early selling in Asian and European markets last night and this morning in the USA (EST time zone), we landed right back at the balance point around 12500, and it appears volume and price could be setting up for a rally at the 0930 EST open.
If MNQH23 can remain above 13523.75, chances are good that we can rally back above 12685.75 and head toward 12766, and if it can get past a previous VWAP line at 12826, as far as 12868.25 in the next day or two. If not, we could see a basic retreat back to price support at 12390.50, 12311-12310, or perhaps even to 12208 if sellers get aggressive.
I have no idea what manufacturing data, housing data, mortgage applications, industrial production data, or Atlanta Fed inflation expectations will do to price action. I am simply going to be at the ready with the chart data on volume and price momentum and set stops and targets in what looks like the proper direction of the trade will be if conditions meet my trade plan. It is really anyone’s guess as to whether any announcement by the Atlanta Fed will make any tangible difference in price action.
That is indeed why the markets trade, that is to discover price on the basis of the data provided, no matter what any trader or institution thinks about it, including me.
I hope everyone has an incredible day trading today and that the rest of the day goes well. More will be coming soon.
Economic Data Courtesy of Econoday dot com
3-Yr Note Settlement
10-Yr Note Settlement
30-Yr Bond Settlement
MBA Mortgage Applications
7:00 AM ET
Retail Sales
8:30 AM ET
Empire State Manufacturing Index
8:30 AM ET
Industrial Production
9:15 AM ET
Business Inventories
10:00 AM ET
Housing Market Index
10:00 AM ET
Atlanta Fed Business Inflation Expectations
10:00 AM ET
EIA Petroleum Status Report
10:30 AM ET
4-Month Bill Auction
11:30 AM ET
20-Yr Bond Auction
1:00 PM ET
Treasury International Capital
4:00 PM ET