Price, Price Spread, Lagged Price/Volume Spread, and Binary Price/Volume Indicator
Price and Total Volume With 50-period Moving Volume Average
Fibonacci Price Scale With Targets
Overnight it appears that Asian and European traders mopped up a lot of excesses of the shorts in Friday’s US session for MNQH23. What it leads us to ( as you can tell by all the yellow lines from previous VWAP lines of previous sessions ) is that we might be wedged against some price resistance this morning.
If MNQH23 can rally above 12078, then odds are decent (likely in the 7 in 10 range) that this market will rally possibly to 12120.25 and beyond to at least 12174 in the next couple of days. There is resistance above at the 12193.50 area, but buyer strength will determine if we can again achieve some new swing high levels above current hourly price ranges.
If this is not the case, it could again be a short trip back to between 11976.50 and 11982 and perhaps back to 11922.75 and 11880 in the next couple of days. If sellers get active even 11827 is not impossible to reach.
I am not certain how durable goods orders will affect these markets. It could be a “bad news is good news” reaction, as Mr. El-Erian mentioned in the video I posted yesterday. All I can tell you is that I will be watching for volume and price momentum at key breakout points and looking for reasonable Fibonacci extension targets to capture in my “trade and scale” method. The magnitude of news likely means greater volatility, and a lot of the bigger news comes next week and not this week per se. Still, if economic data supposedly presages interest rate hikes, the sellers will be active. If not, buyers may hop in. Such is the inorganic bipolar market we trade in. Until Congress, the Fed, and the US Treasury get their budgetary, fiscal, and monetary house in order, all markets including MNQH23 will be casinos with circus acts.
The U.S. and the world face major changes and some difficult times ahead. Let’s all hope some noble and non-self-centered leadership gives a damn again and makes equity and bond markets good places to invest again. I remain mildly optimistic, but I am not going to hold my breath until that leadership arrives.
More will come soon.
Economics Data excerpted from MarketWatch dot com. Econoday’s database is down this morning.
MONDAY, FEB. 27 8:30 am Durable goods orders Jan. -- 5.6% 8:30 am Core orders Jan. -- -0.1% 10:00 am Pending home sales Jan. -- 2.5% 10:30 am Fed Gov. Jefferson speaks