Price, Price Spread, Lagged Price/Volume Spread, and Binary Price/Volume Indicator
Price and Total Volume With 50-period Moving Volume Average
Fibonacci Price Scale With Targets
Sorry for the massive gap. There are editing issues this morning with Substack.
Sounding much like an old Reagan campaign ad, as morning comes to America, it would seem that Asia and Europe decided only to idle MNQH23, likely waiting for Jerome Powell to speak this morning with regard to Federal Reserve rate policy and other economic issues.
On the chart front, MNQH23 is a bit unique this morning compared to the previous day. There is a pretty wide range in which to operate with very large bullish and bearish bars. That sets the tone for perhaps a wide price reaction based on the comments of Mr. Powell. That is the reason I placed the Fibonacci scale there. Any breakout above or below the VWAP line at 12306.25 could have room to run a bit.
Price could also idle, frustrating eager traders around the world. I decided this morning to account for it.
As it is, MNQH23 sits like a seasick sailor on the railing of a ship. It is literally idling right at the VWAP line of 12306.25. If MNQH23 can remain above that line, with sufficient bullishness it could take out 12485.75 and perhaps 12524 and 12537.50. On 12296 the outside 12683 is possible, but that likely might not happen until tomorrow or Thursday.
If not, it is a very short trip back to 12296, 12224.50, and 12178.75. Beyond that is a trip back toward the 11-handles, perhaps back to 11938, but who can be certain of that?
Given the skittishness of initial breakouts (which cost me another boot yesterday morning as I was long early on), I will wait to see how strong the breakout is before taking the breakout trade. If nothing develops, I have tons of other things to do and I will walk away.
Even though Mr. Powell is supposed to favor higher rates and continues to think that is the policy ahead, no one knows for certain which way the move will be. That is why I will analyze what I see in pattern, volume, and price momentum, and take the trades that fit my plan.
That is it for today. More will arrive tomorrow on this Substack blog.
Today’s Economic Data Courtesy of Trading Economics dot com. Be sure to refresh the date at the top left.
