The video contains the setup for the charts. Watch it if you can.
What is important is this:
If we get an insane reaction from the SVB news, we could see a break back to and even below 10737.50, which has been the linchpin of this rally since October of 2022. If we fall below that level, we will have fallen back into the top end of the huge spring rally of April 2020, which might trigger other selling, but we will simply have to see what happens. I mentioned in the video that there might be another level around 10600 that could also hold it, but the key is holding that swing low around 10737.50. NO ONE KNOWS WHAT WILL HAPPEN. THE NEWS MAY PASS OR BE MITIGATED BY SOMETHING THE TREASURY AND FDIC SAY, AND WE COULD HAVE A MASSIVE RALLY.
What do I always say? It depends on who shows up.
If you are the ultimate bullish optimist who believes MNQH23 is headed to the moon, this is the bullish price and time symmetry chart.
If you think MNQH23 is going to hell in a handbasket, this is your chart. (the full development of the C point at 13038.75 is discussed at 08:00 in the video).
Based on all I see until all the insanity over budgetary and monetary policy is done (and whatever ration of fear comes from the SVB collapse), we could still see this market float between 10737.50 and 13038.75. If we fall off that table below 10737.50, there is more potential for long-only position damage. If things really went crazy in the longer term then the 9, 8, and 7 handles could be addressed in a relatively short period of time (over several months). Again, no one knows, but given the speed of that initial rally, there could be the desire for those who want to short to put pressure on this contract.
If not and we get inflation under control and restore some semblance of free market activity outside of all the ESG nonsense, MNQM23 could rally to those potential new highs.
I have no idea of what happens after Friday’s SVB collapse. If you read the article (and understand how risky that setup was, and how stupid some of the bank clients were with business assets that exceeded $250,000) you can see how this structure was uniquely designed to fail. It is indeed possible for the Mensa class to screw up via arrogance, greed, and stupidity. Arrogance tends to lead to such disasters. Remember” Wile E. Coyote, Soooper Genius”.
My only question is how did Peter Thiele get his cash out and not warn of the problem? Inquiring minds want to know.
I will continue to look for proper setups, regardless of direction, amid all the craziness and potential panic (all of which I hope does not happen and that no one knows the certainty of the same ).
Have a great week trading and a great week generally. As always, THANK YOU FOR SUPPORTING THIS SUBSTACK BLOG!
