Price, Price Spread, Lagged Price/Volume Spread, and Binary Price/Volume Indicator
Price and Total Volume With 50-period Moving Volume Average
Fibonacci Price Scale With Targets
Overnight, we saw MNQH24 take out the old swing high of 16469.25 to fresh new highs, and that sets up the possibility of all-time new highs for MNQH24. As I said over the weekend and for as long as I can remember, with Congress’ hunger to spend and the Fed and Treasury willing to print the worthless money, this train can run until it cannot. And that, ladies and gentlemen, is the great dilemma of the 2020s and 2030s. How long can this continue?
It may be that core inflation, particularly in services and insurance (particularly in my case) could still simmer and remain elevated as costs may have to rise over time with the cost of goods needing replacement or increased healthcare costs related to employment costs. One of the phoniest aspects of the last CPI number was that insurance costs (quite high already for business, home, and liability) supposedly dropped 34%. Mine have risen an average of 16%.
The other issue is the cost of migrant entitlements among states and municipalities for migrants, as the burden of Social Security and other entitlements is being passed along to the taxpayer for housing and other needs. This graphic shows the cost per person in New Jersey. Since many of these people remain unemployed, guess who pays for them? You do. Those are costs that citizens cannot control because of policies that the government imposes at the state and federal levels when this nation’s borders are wide open. At levels that are increasing an estimated 4 million migrants per year, you can just imagine what that does to your tax bill.
There are continuing problems with the cost of housing. Until asset prices settle from bubble levels created by unrealistically below-true-rate-of-inflation interest rates, the math doesn’t work for new home buyers. Renters are getting concessions again, but the structural costs of housing need to fall, and it may take higher rates to tamp the price escalation down.
At any rate, the markets will likely react favorably to Fed moves to cut rates, even if they do so in the face of the asset bubble it created. The casino mentality of equity markets will continue until a debt-related crisis either in funding or in banking comes about. I have outlined those issues in previous posts (which you should be reading :) ).
In tech news, Google ($GOOG) lost its anti-trust suit with Epic Games, a victory for entrepreneurial firms against monolithic firms. As an investor in tech startups, I was happy to see that. Will AI kill search and will Google begin to shrink? I sort of doubt it, but only time will tell. The AI chip war continues as Commerce Secretary Gina Raimondo is investigating NVDA 0.00%↑ for its participation in developing AI chips for China.
I can write more about this another time. Let’s take a look at the charts.
If MNQH24 can remain above 16296.50, it has the possibility of easily surpassing the new high of 16492.75 and beyond to 16536 and even 16591 by Wednesday. If not, MNQH24 probably pulls back to the swing low at 16334, back to at least 16291 if it breaks the 16296.50 VWAP line, and beyond that to 16236 by Wednesday. I have no idea what news will do to this contract’s price. All I know is that there is blue sky above this price range to achieve some new monthly swing highs and substantial room below these price levels if sellers aggressively pursue them.
I had yet another breakeven day yesterday as volume didn’t take control of the rally until after 1000 EST. I had much to do yesterday so I did not reenter. Today, as time allows, I will saddle up and position a trade if it meets my trade plan criteria.
That is it for me today. Go make money, be productive, be happy, and make someone else happy today too!
Today’s Economic Data Courtesy of Trading Economics dot com. Be sure to refresh the date at the top left.
