The artwork above was supposed to be my rendition of an anvil being released in Wile E. Coyote’s parachute pack, but since I got in a bit of trouble the last time I used that in a blog, I tried my hand at creating my own. This will be the extent of the amusement portion of this post. How a metal object could be strapped to an American bison’s butt, even in cartoon effigy, is beyond me. In the great tradition of American Uniparty politicians, I will blame Stable Diffusion for the error. I know that Donald J. Trump doesn’t do prompts, so I cannot blame him for everything.
Market action was both a bit violent and violently to the downside last week, as, more than anything else in my opinion, general fear and loathing hit market participants who had lost faith in “forever FOMO” and institutions and retail traders finally understood that the economy is not as solid as one were being told about by mass media.
I can go writ large in giving you what I think are the reasons, but I really do, at the moment, think a lot of this is driven by fear, and the fact that the landscape over time could be rapidly changing in the bond market. I will get more into that as the “Of Bullshit and Bitcoin” series continues shortly, as that is where this discussion may actually have the most baring over time. I deeply apologize for the delays, but my hands are literally full of personal things and business things that take a slightly higher priority than writing at the moment. I think you will get a great deal of good information about what I write and despite the delay, I still believe that the information I provide will be somewhat evergreen in nature, so stay tuned.
I am going to stick with technical analysis on the MNQH25 chart today (which has already rolled over to MNQM23) so you can see all the defined gaps in volume average weighted control points (VWAP control points), so you understand where I am headed with this analysis. We can hash out the rest of it over time as the new contract trades.
Let’s get down to bidness (business)!
Have we hit bottom on MNQH25 (or MNQM25)?
Below is the monthly chart of MNQH25 as of Friday, March 14, 2025:
It is quite hard to say if it has or not currently.
You can click on it to get a better view. If you remember last week, I said there was a risk of a correction because of a very wide gap between hourly VWAP control point lines. We did in fact get the correction. What is most important about that is even though it dropped BELOW that 19448.75 VWAP control line, it did not CLOSE below that line, meaning that there is a chance that the low price value COULD a new support low.
Notice that I didn’t say WOULD be a support low. We do not see confirmation of that in a reversal candle, so odds are, there is still a chance for even lower lows. The weekly chart does not show one either, and you can look at that yourself.
The daily chart of MNQH25 does show potential as you can see below:
There is only one problem with this chart (similar to the discussion I had last week about the monthly chart candlestick price bars. We closed up on Friday, but we did not close above the next highest green candle. The close was at 19550.25 and the recent candle high was 19996.25. That would not even qualify as a type I DeMark pivot point.
In redneck technical analysis lingo, we ain’t there quite yet. We probably get some kind of confirmation or refutation of the pivot next week.
IF (and I emphasize IF) we see that low hold and we get time and price symmetry to line up, an AB=CD rally through the other VWAP control lines would give you this as a new target, 23928.50:
That is only an estimate and is in NO WAY GUARANTEED. We do not know what is going on between the bond market, GDP estimates, which has fallen, consumer confidence, which has also fallen, earnings estimates being revised, and other insanity including the escalation of military action in Yemen between the Houthis and the USA.
I explained last week that as long as the “free money” flowed from the Congress, the Fed, and the U.S. Treasury that the party could go on “forever” until the “cash cocaine” is cut off. The continuing resolution passed through Congress on Friday, so the free money still flows. Thomas Massie is mad of course, but I wonder if he thought to including wording in the bill that would allow President Trump to have full control over DOGE without Uniparty fascist judges unconstitutionally blocking that legislation (which could have been done)?
Naa, he was probably too busy making and distributing budget lapel pins and doing water tricks in front of Congress. He didn’t think to push for truly effective legislation to stop the theft. He did say no, but I have been saying no to waste spending and theft for over 30 years and voting to force my “no” vote. I dislike bloviation from either side of the aisle. Just sayin’.
Can We Still Go Lower on MNQM25?
It is hard to know which way things will go, but the answer is yes it could. We could, given the late Summer 2024 weakness in NQ, run all the way back to a low 18 handles before anything settles in terms of support lows, and if that breaks, there more below that into the lower 15 handles if things get crazy. For now, however, let’s stick to what we know and watch what happens beginning Sunday evening. We will see soon enough how retail and institutional traders feel about things as we open back up tonight.
If you feel like you need to lighten up, use judgement as to which positions you want to pare back and keep looking for other things to buy as the market settles.
That is all for me at the moment. Stay turned, more content is on the way! Thank you as always for supporting the Buffalo Trader’s Writing Desk!
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