This week’s analysis for MNQM23 is not that much different than what I produced last week, but I want to fully emphasize what may have changed since that time, and why it is important to watch what happens this week.
This is the bullish case for next week as best I can determine (found at 3:51 in the video). This would evolve over a couple of weeks, but if buyers run in earnest and the Fed pivots ultimately to lower interest rates, such a pattern completion is possible.
If not, you may get something like this to the downside, should the Fed (and in particularly Fed Chairman Jerome Powell) remain hawkish:
Go to 6:00 in the video to see this discussion. That target at the previous low of 11806.25 could take a week to happen, but if you remember last week’s weekly analysis, found in that link above, you would still be on a somewhat labored bearish glide path to the 9800+ levels I mentioned last week.
We have CPI and Fed announcements early next week(Wednesday), and PPI and jobless claims on Thursday. PCE, Personal Income, and Personal Spending data will be out on Friday. That group of data sets will set the tone for what happens afterward.
Much of the fallout in either direction will be given momentum this week. That is why I remain rather agnostic about direction, regardless of what VIX or new highs versus new lows or any other technical data says. We are still in the cheap money casino phase of market action on MNQM23. Until a firm course of action is determined by our lunatics and criminals in Washington occurs, it is anyone’s ballgame.
For those of you who found me on Twitter, I have a bit of bad news. Elon Musk has decided to shadowban all Substack content, apparently over some “data collection” issue. That is complete idiocy in my opinion, but you likely cannot click through to my link from there in the future. I may pull my link from Twitter and continue with the Substack feed and email as my sources for subscribers. I tried Stocktwits and got no response. Methinks that stream is practically dead.
What I will do is explore the “Notes” feature on this Substack if I see something interesting in other markets that I can present. It will take me time to fully understand to what extent I can add comments to those “notes”, but if it looks promising I will test it. I will let you know if and when that happens.
That’s it for now! Have a wonderful Easter, profitable trading next week, and a great week overall next week! THANK YOU FOR SUPPORTING THIS SUBSTACK BLOG!
Market Data provided courtesy of Tradingeconomics dot com.
