Price, Price Spread, Lagged Price/Volume Spread, and Binary Price/Volume Indicator
Price and Total Volume With 50-period Moving Volume Average
Fibonacci Price Scale With Targets
The selloff that began yesterday afternoon with MNQM23 in the US continued overnight in Asia, and it seems Europe is holding the line around 13053. The AB=CD pattern I showed yesterday did in fact play out. That did not make me a genius. What it did do is demonstrate how Fibonacci patterns can measure the extent of extreme moves. Countercurrent news about falling 2-year yields, rising oil and energy prices, and somewhat weakened economic information somehow forced traders to run in late session, right back to that VWAP line.
We will get more jobless data and get an indication of what oil and gas supplies and pricing may bring in the future today, as well as Fed Governor Bullard discussing likely prospects of Fed funds rate increases.
If MNQM23 can remain above 13053.25, then a rally back to the 61.8% retracement at 13148.50 or to 13187 (near price structure resistance) is possible, and a rally to the previous high of 13236.25,13299, and perhaps even beyond to 13378.50 are possible by Friday. If not, MNQM23 will fall below the 13006 low to 12943.50 and perhaps even through the 12892 VWAP line to 12863.75 by Friday.
All I can tell you is that these markets live and die by Federal Reserve reaction (or its perceived potential reactions ) to economic news. Fundamentals mean nothing here.
When you get rumors of war, and political kangaroo courts by criminals to stop someone what wants to end the grift machine and the endless war machine, you basically get chaos.
If I were such a genius, why did I get busted out of three trades trying to get ahead of the shorts to BE short, and take a 10 NQ point loss yesterday? It basically falls back to my wanting to protect capital against wild fluctuations in volume that occurred before the bottom dropped out. That allows me to trade another day, as in this environment, there will always be an opportunity if one follows one’s trade plan and limits risk. I don’t like being Wyle E. Coyote.
Volatility is good for traders and hell for hedge funds and investment managers who might not have flexibility in investing funds. This insanity will continue until unambiguous, un-addled minds take control of our monetary, fiscal, and budgetary problems. When that will be, I have no idea. The current era reminds me of the Clinton administration on steroids and meth. Let us hope this can be resolved soon.
More will be coming tomorrow.
Today’s Economic Data Courtesy of Trading Economics dot com. Be sure to refresh the date at the top left.
