Price, Price Spread, Lagged Price/Volume Spread, and Binary Price/Volume Indicator
Price and Total Volume With 50-period Moving Volume Average
Fibonacci Price Scale With Targets
The initial excitement of what might be the last quarter-point tightening of the Fed Funds rate, but the combined news of Jerome Powell’s hawkish positing that the inflation-fighting is not done and general fear and loathing about PacWest Bank looking for partners to avoid potential collapse turned traders bearish and slammed MNQM23 back to 13043 (well above the 13000 AB=CD target based on partial information yesterday). You can go to Bloomberg this morning and the yammering there is about a rate pause, a potential recession, and all other stuff that sends a confusing picture. I assume Bill Ackman thinks regional banks are as bad as Herbalife, but markets acted as if they agreed with him and Jerome Powell’s comments would mean more pain for bondholders, which most regional banks are.
The only thing I can see is that on an hourly basis, MNQM shows lower highs and lower lows which is bearish. Price action in Asia was rallying after the US close, but in Europe, things look a little more biased to the seller’s side.
If MNQM23 can get above 13087.75, it has a shot at rallying back to 13172, with 13207 and 13261 possible by Friday if the bulls win the market argument. If not, it could be a quick trip back to at least 13087.75, and all the way back to 13043, and perhaps even 13009.25 or back near a VWAP line at 12955.50. It is truly hard to know what will fully transpire until unemployment numbers hit tomorrow, but news flow is both frantic and caustic (what’s new about that?), SO ANYTHING CAN HAPPEN.
I am simply going to wait for the volume to pick up and for the right setup to occur to avoid the boots of previous days (which protects equity). I did capture 22 NQ points long after the Fed announcement at 1400 EDT yesterday as I chose to work on other business in the morning and set my alarm for 1330 EDT. watch for the hourly expansion above that 2 standard deviation line, set a target inside the 127.2% expansion of the previous swing, took the profit, and left the building. If nothing sets up today, I have a full slate of things to get done, so I will do that. I will wait for the right set of conditions that match my trade plan.
More is coming soon. Have a productive Thursday and put some money in your pocket also!
Today’s Economic Data Courtesy of Trading Economics dot com. Be sure to refresh the date at the top left.
