MNQM Weekly Analysis:
I would once again appeal to those not normally watching the video this morning to do so. What I want to show you based on the best pattern set-ups I could find in a given timeframe is what could happen on both sides of the market. You can see for yourselves the charts below.
Volume and price: (which leans bullish)
The Bullish Case:
An outside AB=CD target containing price and time symmetry would deliver a high of 14005.25, breaking this contract out of its current price channel.
The Bearish Case:
If that 88.6% retracement peak holds, we would then fall back into the near-term low of 11537.50. The weekly VWAP line is very near 12400, so some kind of mean revision upon a bust of selling would make that target reasonable.
If you have seen previous weeks’ analysis, we still stand the threat of falling below 10737.50 and deeper into the area which was the rapid portion of the NQ rally associated with the money pump of March/April 2020. If earnings deteriorate and rates tighten, that is probably where we might penetrate again. If not, look at the bullish case as the beginning of another free money casino ride until governments and investors choose not to purchase U.S. Treasuries because they are both valueless and deliver no time value or income.
We are going to take flak when the Fed makes rate announcements on Wednesday. Expectations call for a quarter-point hike but based on information in this article about banks being in a bit of a bind in terms of the real value of assets held, there could be a mess for the Fed to deal with, as does Congress and the Treasury. It will be a circumstance that will have to be dealt with shortly. Raising rates floods the Federal government with interest payments it must print to meet, and cutting rates makes the public pay for it at every retail outlet they choose as prices rise.
Moving to gold…
GLD Monthly Analysis:
Because of the lack of time, I will post the Rumble video for analysis here.
Watch the video for the full details. GLD looks a lot like MNQH in terms of the 88.6% retracement (which is seen often in metals and in forex). It could break out close to 2400 (a target many hedge fund traders and analysts seem to think) or it could fall right back below 1500 to find support again.
A lot depends on what happens with Fed action going forward. Some of the cheap Fed money ran into GLD also. We should know about the pending breakout if there is one in a few weeks.
That is it for me this week. We will get deeper into the data once we see how things shake out with all the news next week.
It is truly anyone’s guess. It all depends on whether buyers or sellers en mass lead the action.
More coming soon. Have a great week trading and a great week period!
