Price, Price Spread, Lagged Price/Volume Spread, and Binary Price/Volume Indicator
Price and Total Volume With 50-period Moving Volume Average
Fibonacci Price Scale With Targets
Sorry for the late publishing. A few technical issues arose.
This may not be the most gracious and lilting ( a word my 7th grade English course) prose this morning, but this morning’s WSJ might describe what could be happening as we move beyond the 4th of July in MNQU23 and other U.S. stock indices.
The economy is a bit shaky. and the Fed and Congress are going nuts with the printing press and with continuing resolutions. Yet, until solid news comes out, we may play around quite a lot with price levels just below recent highs, and hedgers and traders play games with $VIX. We could get one of those shocks from PCE on Friday or even Jerome Powell today, but things may indeed slow down a bit.
There could be shocks from chip wars too, but again, I discussed the ramifications of that to a small degree on Sunday. We will have to see how badly international trade suffers from China-U.S. tensions as well as with potential de-dollarization at some point, as the USA still seems moving toward a currency trainwreck.
At any rate, let’s look at the charts and focus on what happened and what may happen going forward.
After (I have to assume) that positive durable goods sales data was reported, the market rallied back to Monday’s ranges, only to be mildly sold off in Asia and basically idled by Europe until the 0600 EDT hour. Volume and price spreads in terms of price trend, volume, and volume-price momentum turned positive overnight.
If MNQU23 can remain above 15084.75, it has a solid chance to take out the old swing high of 15139.75 and rally to 15208.75 and even 15395 assuming the rallies can best the VWAP lines (something it has managed to do while this year’s rally has proceeded until just lately.
If not, as the reflex or rebound rally was swift yesterday, it could be a quick trip back to 14912.25 and 14888.25, potentially leading to a selloff back to 14820 and even to 14739.50 and 14733 if sellers become aggressive again.
We will simply have to wait out this morning’s Fed pronouncements and see what happens with PCE on Friday to get a grip on the wacky world of geopolitics and the domestic and economic policies to see if the rally grinds on or if things take the big leg down possibly. I think traders may indeed be looking for a break, which could mean slower action ahead, but no one knows for certain.
I took a net 8 NQ loss yesterday, but the new method I use (which I hope to demonstrate very shortly) actually allowed me to nearly erase a 25 NQ loss on two other trades by picking up a final 17 NQ point gain to the first extension target yesterday morning. I was not trading at noon as the final very positive breakout occurred, but the point of fact is, I did not face the boot, and for the week, the balance is positive in terms of profit.
Within the next two weeks, I should have the ability to replay trades without having to eat up real-time capacity to do that while trading. That will help me to demonstrate what I am doing differently. If everything works right, I should then be able to run hourly trades by keeping an independent computer (or two) to run hourly trades as I work on other business. I will let you know how that progresses.
That is it for now. Have a profitable, productive, and peaceful Wednesday.
Today’s Economic Data Courtesy of Trading Economics dot com. Be sure to refresh the date at the top left.
