Price, Price Spread, Lagged Price/Volume Spread, and Binary Price/Volume Indicator
Price and Total Volume With 50-period Moving Volume Average
Fibonacci Price Scale With Targets
As I began to relate yesterday, the USA seems to be in a bit of a sloshy mixed-bag economic situation at the moment. Even though job growth has been described as anything from ‘sticky’ to ‘robust’ (depending on how much verbal horse manure you like to spread in print, broadcast, or social media), there is some questioning as to how strong it truly is.
Even though the economy seems to be gaining moment, if you saw that B of A chart that compared forecast Fed funds rate hikes to volatility (in that post that YOU should have read yesterday), you might have an inkling of what Greg Jensen of Bridgewater Associates thinks is over-optimism in asset pricing (something I tend to agree with, but more on a macro-basis than a seasonal one).
I even got a special message from shadowstats.com confirming that his calculations show that the Fed again began easing in May (as one might have anticipated while Congress lifted the debt ceiling to allow continued insane ‘covidiocy’-era spending until January 2025). His calculations are generally accurate based on the pre-1980 ‘all-inclusive model’ of inflation. Even with those calculations, he has actually seen more of a net deceleration in inflation lately than published stats but thinks more inflation is coming, as I do (particularly in food, which I have referenced a bunch of times).
We are still in no-man’s land until we see how earnings show up in Q3 2023 and are headed in Q4 2023. We will just have to watch it.
Back to the MQNU23 charts.
Today is a half-day of trading that ends at 1315 EDT. Volume may be light, which is one reason I may not trade today and come back on Wednesday.
Still, if MQNU23 can remain above 15361.75 it should be able to remain above Friday’s high of 15376.50 on its way to 15446 and 15534.50 by Wednesday.
If not, I think it is quite possible that prices will find support somewhere near 15202.75, and failing that, it could be a quick trip back to 15121, and even farther back to 15051.50 and 14953 by Wednesday.
There seems to be more open space in terms of a dearth of commercial interest than there is below at this point. Which way will traders drive this market? It again will depend on who shows up.
I picked up 38 NQ points long on Friday. Hopefully sometime this week I will have the other platform going so you can see the breakout trades I take. You should begin to see the method behind the madness and give you a better understanding of how I combine Fibonacci extensions and Fibonacci patterns with volume profile.
That is it for now. Have a productive and profitable Monday, and have a great 4th of July! Nothing will be published tomorrow. I will return on Wednesday.
Today’s Economic Data Courtesy of Trading Economics dot com. Be sure to refresh the date at the top left.
