Price, Price Spread, Lagged Price/Volume Spread, and Binary Price/Volume Indicator
Price and Total Volume With 50-period Moving Volume Average
Fibonacci Price Scale With Targets
We will find out ( assuming the data is accurate, which one should always question no matter what leadership is in Washington ) what CPI is over the previous month this morning at 0830 EDT.
I have beaten this topic to death, but we now see how media attempts to make the problem (and it will be a continuing problem on many fronts) go away. Take for example this WSJ article, which pines for eliminating “imputed costs” of a mortgage on housing costs, is basically a hand-waving exercise. Because we have 50 states and other territories used in the data, you probably do have to do some imputation. The reason for that is, particularly in the area of housing, groceries, gasoline, and other staples, inflation IS A LOCAL ISSUE. In most areas of the USA, renting is more expensive than having a mortgage. However, in booming areas, like Austin, TX, renting is now 5% cheaper than a mortgage. That will balance itself out, net of taxation, which by the way, renters pay on behalf of the owner of the building to cover the neverending and cancerous (to your pocketbook) cost of government. That is a ‘don’t get me started’ topic for a weekend.
Because the Federal government will continue to artificially drive up the cost of food and energy (unless you stop them at the voting booth) by nitrogen restrictions and restrictions in refining and production, the food and energy component that the Fed, the Treasury, and Congress try to ignore, WILL return again. Take a look at this Bank of America study. The study you see there shows that even the core inflation could, in fact, rise again ( and I have already explained why) as wages do not keep up even with core inflation let alone the cost of food and energy which is the core of what people dole out every month to stay alive. Those markets are all government-manipulated, so the problem will not go away until the government stops screwing around with them. Getting that done is YOUR JOB at the ballot box, assuming you are not sucking off the government teet like millions of other Americans.
Free markets really can work if we let them. The political class enriches itself by interceding in them, but that is another topic for another time.
As they say in South Carolina, “thems is the facts”. Let’s talk about MNQU23.
It looks like the bearish AB=CD pattern I suggested yesterday was invalidated by further rallies in MQNU23 in Asia and Europe. I am assuming that there is potential euphoria over lowered inflation expectations. We will find out at 0830 EDT.
If MNQU23 remains above 15229.50, then the odds are very solid that the previous high of 15229.25 will be exceeded, and that 15338 and even 15387.50 could be taken out by Thursday, assuming VWAP resistance around 15361.75 and 15349.75 can be taken out.
If not, MNQU23 could find support around 15182.50 and failing that, could fall to 15156.50 and back potentially to 15117.75 and 15068.25 by Thursday.
I will not speculate on the direction of change for the inflation rate. What I will do is watch volume, volume and price momentum, Fibonacci price patterns, and the volume profile for clues related to price breakouts. I profited 21 NQ points long yesterday. Hopefully, I will succeed again before having to go about the affairs of the day.
More is coming soon. I will attempt to finish setting up the new profile so that it can be displayed as well.
Have a productive and profitable Wednesday!
Today’s Economic Data Courtesy of Trading Economics dot com. Be sure to refresh the date at the top left.
