Price, Price Spread, Lagged Price/Volume Spread, and Binary Price/Volume Indicator
Price and Total Volume With 50-period Moving Volume Average
Fibonacci Price Scale With Targets
The real problem with today’s inflation is that the Fed (and other world central banks) depressed interest rates to zero, which created conditions for the insane asset bubble we have today. What seems to be most worrisome is the housing market currently, as noted in Bloomberg. Demand is still strong despite the rise in rates, perhaps meaning MORE rate hikes are necessary ( how long have I harped on this? 14 years maybe?) That could mean another rate hike beyond the one expected on Wednesday.
To top that off, it seems China has its own real estate problems, so much so that the PRC is convening an emergency meeting to deal with the crisis that is stunting the police state’s recovery after its draconian lockdowns. If that slowdown continues and public unrest peaks, Xi is potentially ready to open the sideshow of war to protect the CCP and his power.
And in grain markets, the potential humanitarian crisis escalated as Russia bombed grain storage in Odessa. That is another source of inflation and potential starvation down the road.
We live in a period of peak insanity it seems. For now, let’s just focus on the charts.
If MNQU23 can rally above the 15584 VWAP line, then it has a a very good chance to rally quickly to 15619 and beyond to 15654.75. If a rally continues into Tuesday, then 15691.50 and even 15736.50 are possible.
If that does not happen, then it is only a quick jaunt back to 15522.75 and beyond to 15486.25 and even 15440.25 by Tuesday. There is a potential ( NOT ACTUAL as no one knows for certain) AB=CD pattern not substantiated by a Fibonacci level that ends at 15451.50. We will simply have to see how market action plays out.
I took a net 10 NQ point loss short per contract total for two trades Friday as I somewhat snatched defeat from the jaws of victory by a trading mistake that I made with the new method. What I will do for the next two days is to test my trade plan with the new modifications in simulation to be certain that I follow the rules precisely. I would hope to be able to trade a spread trap on Wednesdaay, but I will have to gauge conditions at the time of trade before I would attempt it. We will see.
That is all for me today. Have a productive, profitable, and happy Monday!
Today’s Economic Data Courtesy of Trading Economics dot com. Be sure to refresh the date at the top left.
