Price, Price Spread, Lagged Price/Volume Spread, and Binary Price/Volume Indicator
Price and Total Volume With 50-period Moving Volume Average
Fibonacci Price Scale With Targets (in broad view to make up for the truncated chart above)
Tech earnings given AAPL’s disappointment over iPhone 14 sales seem to be lacking and earnings generally have been a concern in the US and in China, causing traders and institutions to perhaps rethink their holdings. Apparently as a result of those concerns, Asiand and Europeans got busy selling stocks and selling stock futures as MNQU23 began breaking down overnight.
When you combine falling real estate prices and general economic malaise in China combined with massive youth unemployment and a leader who is preparing their country for war, China is one concern. Then there is the escalation of the war in Ukraine where Ukrainians are using U.S. armaments to attack Moscow. What could possibly go wrong there if the world’s largest holder of nuclear weapons decided to retaliate? I will allow you the reader to cogitate on that scenario. Methinks it would go a bit beyond the situations in this video I saw as a kid.
I could write pages about this craziness generally, but for now I want to focus on the charts to see what could happen today and over the next few days.
I sort of truncated the first two charts above to fit in volume as best I could because the trading was more active than usual last night as overseas traders turned bearish on MNQU23. There is blue sky (lack of commercial holdings) both above and below current price levels, so any reaction bullish or bearish might cascade above or below if one side or the other gets active. With summer trading, however, it could be a dud also.
If MNQU23 can rally above 15808.25 and 15839.25, it should be relatively easy for it to recapture 15889 and rally to 15915 and 15948 by Wednesday. If not, it could be a fairly quick dive below the lows of 15793.25 to 15767.25 and perhaps even 15734. The key thing to realize is that the next solid VWAP level is around 15618, so there is considerable room to run lower if sellers become agressive.
Yesterday I basically broke even, losing a single NQ point per contract as volume was fairly weak early on and could not sustain targets. It did move later yesterday afternoon as sellers began to enter, but I was not trading at that time. We will see what happens today. I am still in simulation, but I will likely return to trading capital tomorrow.
That is all from me for now. If you have questions, leave them in the comments. If you like what you read, give me a like to boost the Substack algorithm. I am being read in 20 US states and 18 foreign countries now. I am grateful that readers continue to subscribe. I will do all I can to improve this Substack as time moves forward. I have a fair amount of time demand on myself currently, but I will press through it all.
Have a profitable Tuesday all and enjoy the process too!
Today’s Economic Data Courtesy of Trading Economics dot com. Be sure to refresh the date at the top left.
