Price, Price Spread, Lagged Price/Volume Spread, and Binary Price/Volume Indicator
Price and Total Volume With 50-period Moving Volume Average
Fibonacci Price Scale With Targets
It seems the entire known investing universe is salivating over NVDA 0.00%↑ earnings today. It’s valuation ( as the rest of the FAANG or what I call MANGA stocks) is extreme, so earnings forecasts are going to be critical. As you can see from the NASDAQ website, earnings are projected to flatten into 2024. Is the AI magic or mojo still there. Who knows?
What is a bit more worrisome are charts that show the divergence between real interest rates and stock valuations. That divergence is now extreme and at some point must mean revert. That is certainly the result of endless printed “casino money” by the Federal Reserve.
China continues to project a war-like stance in the South China Sea, and is ramping up tensions in the region. What is a bit scarier is this news about Huawei, which is going to skirt our sanctions to develop their own technology some of which has been used for international espionage. If the USA were to lose chip imports from companies like Taiwan Semiconductor, among others, we would soon be at a great disadvantage technologically and from an industrial production perspective, as we do not have the manufacturing capability domestically to keep our industries running. And to think we gave this technology (either willfully or through Chinese technology theft). We have reaped what we sewed back in the Bush/Clinton era.
And as a side note, if one wants to understand how totally unprepared our military and our political establishment are for ground war or even kinetic nuclear war, please watch this interview with Douglas Macgregor. This should give anyone pause about the precariousness of world affairs at this point in history.
The world is a crazy place, so let’s just focus on the charts.
If MNQU23 can remain above 15042.50, it has a shot at taking out the old swing high of 15083 and press higher with buyer’s efforts to get above the 15105.50 VWAP line to 15124.25 and beyond to 15177 by Thursday. If that does not happen, the MNQU23 likely reverts to support either at 15025 or 15007 where resistance has turned to support as this market has attempted to bounce from the 14700s. If support fails there, it is possible to retest the swing low at 14931 and perhaps break the 14905 VWAP line again on the way down to 14888.75 or even 14837 by Thursday.
No one really knows if the NVDA earnings or earnings forecasts will make big waves or not. The only thing that I know from the charts is that beyond the swing highs and swing lows of price actions, the price gaps are large, so any big break will likely have tangible effects on the price if things get wacky.
Things got wacky with volume for me, and even though I was short, I got bounced for a net 27 NQ loss. I will have to consider widening stops, but at least I am not taking the utter beating I was getting with the previous entry method. This one gives you a ton of lattitude, as it favors breakout continuations. I will get into that in more depth as the weekend series on trade setups moves forward.
That is all for now. Make your Wednesday profitable, happy, and productive as possible.
Today’s Economic Data Courtesy of Trading Economics dot com. Be sure to refresh the date at the top left.
