Price, Price Spread, Lagged Price/Volume Spread, and Binary Price/Volume Indicator
Price and Total Volume With 50-period Moving Volume Average
Fibonacci Price Scale With Targets
It is really hard to know what MNQU23 or any other US equity index or equity index futures contract is doing without hard data, and most of that happens tomorrow and over the next two weeks.
Is the Fed cooling the “hot employment market” (even though many work two jobs and that is not accounted for)? The answer may be yes, as long as you trust the data.
Even with that, the U.S. Federal government still outspends it’s receipts by a wide margin. Interest rates continue to rise almost without pause to borrow money, and that will continue to create asset pressure on banks. (I’m no real fan of Roubini, but he makes valid points here). The chances of a credit event still are increasing at the margin as the FDIC changes capital requirements again.
And as credit card debt exceeds $1 trillion for the first time ever, defaults are now rising at the same time. Times are still quite scary.
Let’s just look at the charts for now, shall we?
If MNQU23 can remain above 15440.25, it has a good shot at taking out the swing high at 15469.25 and could even take out 15582 and even 15726 by Thursday. If not, MNQU23 will likely hit some key support areas around 15308.50 and anywhere between 15229.50 and 15182.50. If sellers stampeded MNQU23, it could in fact still take out 15105.50 and challenge the swing low around 15050. It would be tough to imagine it breaking below that rather thick area of VWAP support to the extensions marked below that swing low in orange, but anything is possible in this rather bipolar market. It all depends on who shows up.
I picked up 22 NQ points per contract on some wild volume to the upside yesterday, only to have my runners get stopped out at breakeven on a quick selling surge before running wildly bullish the rest of the day. I will simply have to manage stops better and leave some in place so that the trade has more room to breathe. The important thing to remember is that I MADE MONEY yesterday and protected equity, so that is all good to me.
That is all for me today. If you have questions, let me know in the comments. Have a pleasant and profitable Wednesday!
Today’s Economic Data Courtesy of Trading Economics dot com. Be sure to refresh the date at the top left.
