I am not going to spend a ton of time on charts, as I did so in the video. If you want to see the monthly analysis start at 0:00. The weekly chart analysis starts at 3:59, and the daily analysis starts at 7:46.
Here are the key charts:
Monthly MNQU23: (with the bearish target re-expressed. The bullish targets can be found in previous weekend write ups).
Weekly MNQU23, with BULLISH Targets this time, as the pivot that still exist would indicate. NOBODY KNOWS WHICH WAY IT WILL TURN, but this could be the best near-term bullish estimate.
The key thing I will leave you with today has to do with relative asset risk, and the folks at Game of Trades produced an excellent video late Friday that covers the emergence of the fact that the $SPX earnings yield is less than the return on a 3 month T-bill. That generally means that lower prices could be coming for stocks over the next 2 to 5 years, though the market may not fully turn for another 12 months perhaps. The rapid pace of interest rate hikes (caused by flagrant overspending and printing of valueless currency) has left the Fed in the “death quadrant”. That quadrant gives the choice of either hyper-inflating the economy (which is being done by Congress with an annual minimum $2 trillion dollar spending binge with NO cap ) or raising interest rates which will very shortly make interest payments the number 1 Federal budget item, swamping all defense spending and entitlements. That would in effect basically collapse the Federal government, unless some debt jubilee is declared. Hyperinflation might again be the ultimate result of THAT event. A similar event to this, described in the video, happened in 1929 preceding the Great Depression.
(I am not endorsing nor do get paid by Game Of Trades. Their work is quite comprehensive, however).
Will that happen this time? Who knows? But when valuations on QQQ stocks are at highs not seen since the dot-com bubble, one has to wonder.
If you are in or nearing retirement, it is time to really plan for mitigation of negative results, I think.
Since I can trade in both directions, I am not going to worry about long-only strategies. I do have strategies in place for real estate, but those may be discussed elsewhere in a future Substack, depending on the time I have to devote to it.
I will get into housing and other economic data later this week. I have a ton of things on the task list that need to get knocked out.
If you have questions, leave them in the comments and I will answer them. Thank you for supporting this Substack! Have a pleasant and successful week ahead.
