Was yesterday a “character change” day? Maybe, but maybe NOT? I will discuss this more over the weekend. I think the thing investors concentrated most on was that the rise in rates was less than 75 basis points and the crowd went wild. The crowd probably ignored the rest of the message that rate increases were not going to slow down and that the ceiling is nowhere near being covered until inflation is quashed.
What next year may be all about is the character change in government-restricted commodity markets (food and energy in particular) and that could drive prices even higher, but will simply have to see what happens. NO ONE KNOWS FOR CERTAIN what will happen next, however.
Ranges went beyond even the highest marks I measured yesterday from pure euphoria.
The current VWAP line of 11539 is being observed by satellite from the contract’s current price levels. There is a confluence of previous VWAP lines that hover around the 50% retracement of the massive upswing at 11792.50 which will likely be the measuring point today. If the contract can remain above that level, then prices can easily retest the 12007.50 high and run toward 12248 (there is a major gap between concentrations of VWAP lines that represent nearly 300 NQ points above yesterday’s high.
If that fails, then we probably retreat through the 11792.50 level and back toward 11676.50 which is an old VWAP support line or lower. Only time will tell.
I got booted going long twice in the early session, and volume continued to indicate breakout, but simply failed to achieve momentum until after 1400 EST. I went to the penalty box, as my trade plan called for, and missed the big breakout in the afternoon as I was in a business conference. As I have had great success trading those announcement breakouts this year, I just brush that one off and get ready for today. You ain’t gonna win ‘em all.
Tons of manufacturing and employment data over the next couple of days could move markets in either direction depending on their interpretation of how it might affect Federal Reserve policy.
I will discuss whether the trend change is significant this weekend. I still think all juries are out either way. More is coming soon.
3-Month Bill Settlement
6-Month Bill Settlement
52-Week Bill Settlement
Challenger Job-Cut Report
7:30 AM ET
Jobless Claims
8:30 AM ET
Personal Income and Outlays
8:30 AM ET
Lorie Logan Speaks
9:25 AM ET
Michelle Bowman Speaks
9:30 AM ET
PMI Manufacturing Final
9:45 AM ET
ISM Manufacturing Index
10:00 AM ET
Construction Spending
10:00 AM ET
Neel Kashkari Speaks
10:00 AM ET
EIA Natural Gas Report
10:30 AM ET
3-Month Bill Announcement
11:00 AM ET
6-Month Bill Announcement
11:00 AM ET
4-Week Bill Auction
11:30 AM ET
8-Week Bill Auction
11:30 AM ET
Michael Barr Speaks
3:00 PM ET
Fed Balance Sheet
4:30 PM ET