See that chart above? That is the monthly MNQZ22 chart. Even with all the crazy swings in price over the last few months, is it still in a downtrend?
The answer at the moment is still YES if you use a standard trend line analysis. Will is stay that way? I will discuss that this weekend, but as you can see we might be right up against potential change in the trend in the short run.
A chart focused on near-term hourly ranges is below:
If the price can remain above the 12029.75 VWAP line, then it has the potential to retest 12144.75 and onto 12199.50. If not, it is a relatively short trip back to 11943 and a potential low at 11889 or lower.
We all know that today could get crazy (or not) depending upon the reaction to the unemployment data that hits at 0830 EST today. If you want to see a wider view of hourly price action, I measured a Fibonacci scale from the last swing low at 11498 to the most recent high. This is what it looks like:
If range action gets crazy as a result of the unemployment number (and I have ZERO idea if that happens or not), the potential swing highs could take you anywhere from that low at 11322 to potentially a swing high near the previous VWAP line I discussed a couple of weeks ago around 12542.75 that would be right on to slightly above that monthly downtrend line.
I have no idea if it happens or not, but it should be decision time one way or the other shortly. I am still not convinced that even that would represent a shift in sentiment, as there is too much government manipulation in our commodity and interest rate markets. Only time will tell.
I will be posting this weekend, so let’s see what happens today. I will as always trading in the morning, and if I see something that fits the trade plan, I will trade it. If not, I will wait until Monday morning.
That’s it for now folks. More will be coming soon.
The economic data is provided by Econoday dot com.
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