Price, Price Spread, Lagged Price/Volume Spread, and Binary Price/Volume Indicator
Price and Total Volume With 50-period Moving Volume Average
Fibonacci Price Scale With Targets
Even though the Fed didn’t raise rates yesterday, there is still a pretty high likelihood it has to do something to repair this administration’s and Congress’ self-inflicted wounds on the economy and the near destruction of energy flexibility. That would likely mean that ZIRP, zero interest rate policy is dead for now (and Austrian economists are probably happy in this country), and that non-zero rates are a “forever” thing. The whole notion of cash free of a time value of risk is insane, but certainly not as insane as fiat currency, which the U.S. Dollar and the vast majority of western economies are. I could go on with this rant, but it will have to wait for a weekend to do that.
AAPL 0.00%↑ seems unable to create its own chips after Qualcomm successfully sued it over licensing. Since I am involved in another investment that involves violation of mobile phone technology, all I can say is that karma can be rough, but this happens with all technology companies that try to rapidly expand their technological edge.
And of all things, just as interest rates appear to be returning to at or above inflation rates which help to define rational risk levels in equities and debt (though in the USA that is STILL a long way off), look at what the new hot thing is. VALUE PLAYS! The investment technique of buying assets at multiples below growth rates and average market multiples could be back. That, by the way, is how I made a decent amount of money in stocks in the late 1970s through the 1990s before the destruction of the currency and monetary policy came to a head in 2008 and I suddenly lost interest in equity bubble assets. I ran to real estate, which had just recently collapsed, and earned income there. If real value in earnings returns, I may once again become a long-only investor, but that is still a long way away I am afraid.
Let’s discuss the stuff above at a greater depth later and let’s shift to the charts.
If MNQM23 can rally above 15202.75 it has at least a shot to rally back to price resistance levels near that 50% Fibonacci level at 15258.50. If buyers become aggressive, it could rally back beyond that the heavy VWAP resistance around 15416.25, and might have a chance to reach 15436.50 by Friday. We would have to see how strong buying strength is to projectb beyond that, but anything is possible. If that rally above 15202.75 doesn’t happen, then its a short trip to 14963.75 and even 14860.50, and that could happen by Friday.
I think trader and investor perception of Fed pressure to control inflation and earnings prospects will drive future action, and that is impossible to predict. There is still more room to the downside if rallies to not protect key supports around 15000. If that doesn’t hold, then it is perhaps possible that if bullish enthusiasm does not hold, that we would be seeing that AB=CD weekly bearish projection hit. Again, no one knows what will happen, and I will gauge any trades with my trade plan.
I was able to only pick up 10 NQ points short yesterday, and that happened before the big selloff after 1500 EDT. I was at the gym when the key sale could have been made before the market opened. I do not feel bad however, as I made money and protected equity against the hard bounces that hit yesterday.
I will see what the market brings today. Have a productive and happy Wednesday!
Today’s Economic Data Courtesy of Trading Economics dot com. Be sure to refresh the date at the top left.
