Price, Price Spread, Lagged Price/Volume Spread, and Binary Price/Volume Indicator
Price and Total Volume With 50-period Moving Volume Average
Fibonacci Price Scale With Targets
Bond yield escalation is finally pressuring the U.S. stock market as it seems retail investors, institutional investors, and hedge funds finally got the news that uncapped Congressional spending and unlimited printing of money poses a threat to the economy. It may also have triggered the removal of House Speaker Kevin McCarthy as at least a few Congresspeople, led in this iteration by Matt Gaetz, understand the gravity of the situation that has been ignored since at least 2008. That was when America’s experiment with modern monetary theory (MMT, for which I have a vulgar acronym for) began. Yet, as rates and prices rise, JOLTs rise, and bankruptcies reach all time highs, Gramma Yellen still lives in her pollyannish dream world.
Sadly, I am limited in time to comment further on this, but it is time to understand that the United States no longer has the unlimited largess to spend recklessly. As I have more time, I will try.
Let’s look at the charts.
Yesterday the markets turned bearish after the JOLTs announcement and really never looked back. It wasn’t until mid-session in Europe that any buying happened ( around 0400 EDT).
If MNQZ23 can rally above the 14769.50 VWAP line, it still has a shot at 14774.70 (close to the VWAP line resistance and price resistance there. If buyers get aggressive, given the really rapid 1000 EDT selloff yesterday, it could climb back to 14851 by Thursday (which is the 0.618 retracement level of that last down-move). I have no idea whether it can move back to the swing high of 14974 or not (or any of the extensions above it marked in the green boxes, but anything is possible at the moment.
If MNQZ23 cannot remain above the 14769.50 VWAP line, then it is likely a short trip back to the swing low of 14651, and beyond to 14563.75 and 14452.25 by Thursday, which is very close to the bearish projection of 14404 or thereabouts I made a couple of weeks ago. NO ONE KNOWS WHAT WILL HAPPEN which is why one needs to stick to one’s trade plan.
I was a bit anxious to be short (based on the trade plan), and I got booted for 9 NQ points per contract, and the train left without me, as I do not chase trade set-ups. It has been a rocky couple of weeks for me, but I will remain patient for breakouts and not chase the initial outbreak, which tends to kick back, as it did yesterday. I do not try to hit home runs everyday, I just try to hit reasonable targets based on volume profile and price momentum.
That is it for me today. Have a great Wednesday everyone, be careful, be organized, be profitable and manage your risk. The long-run will be good if you keep working toward your goals.
Today’s Economic Data Courtesy of Trading Economics dot com. Be sure to refresh the date at the top left.
