Price, Price Spread, Lagged Price/Volume Spread, and Binary Price/Volume Indicator
Price and Total Volume With 50-period Moving Volume Average
Fibonacci Price Scale With Targets
The month over month PPI (producer price index) released yesterday was elevated and I assume based on that data, the rumors of restrictive federal funds rates were confirmed in the afternoon and that put pressure on the market but by 1500 EDT buyers rushed in and rallied MNQZ23 to another relative swing high in the bipolar environment of recent price action. There could be more action like that today as CPI and inflation rate numbers are released at 0830 EDT.
The same issues abound, with bond volatility making it difficult for investors to safely take returns as rates rise. Bloomberg suggests watching inflation data. Since inflation data, as with employment data, can be severely manipulated, it might be better to watch the charts rather than the posted numbers, but that is only my opinion.
As Americans flee from blue state implosion, real estate is priced out of the budgets of those used to more reasonable prices, as Texas is discovering. This will continue until the Federal Reserve and Congress stop printing and borrowing relentlessly, but no end is in sight for that.
In the tech world, China is finding ways around American restrictions on Chinese EVs by working partnerships in South Korea and Morocco. Even though I think EVs are a first-world solution that could turn into a very large problem, it seems governments are intent upon a journey that is neither green nor affordable to the public. The shortage of copper for charging station build-out alone will limit EV expansion.
On the other hand in India, entrepreneurs are taking risks to extend mobile technologies to those who cannot afford it by producing ultra-cheap mobile phones as the vehicle. At least someone out there is considering consumer economics in their pathway to market capture. Maybe the EU and the USA could pick up some pointers from India instead of bankrupting its citizens with illogical energy schemes and unfunded entitlements.
Let’s forget all that and all the war drums, and just look at the charts.
If MNQZ23 can remain above 15416.75, it has a chance, once again, to take some large gains beyond the swing high at 15448 and rally to 15501 and even 15568.50 by Friday. It appears that the gaps in commercial holdings can allow such rallies to occur as we have seen in past sessions. NO ONE KNOWS FOR CERTAIN, but the opportunity is there is buyers become aggressive.
If not, MNQZ23 could quickly fall back to support at around 15300 if sellers get active, given the very quick rally yesterday afternoon. If that support fails, the swing low at 15253 could be taken out, and potential targets of 15200 and 15132.50 are possible by Friday.
We will simply have to watch what happens today, as both outcomes are possible given the perception recently that inflation data drives the markets (and to a great extent, it has).
I picked up 15 NQ points per contract yesterday on a fleeting breakout after the open, but I in fact waited for the breakout above the 2 standard deviation unfair high before entering, which kept me out of the boot area which comes after an initial penetration of a previous high.
That is all for me today. I hope everyone has a positive and productive Thursday!
Today’s Economic Data Courtesy of Trading Economics dot com. Be sure to refresh the date at the top left.