Price, Price Spread, Lagged Price/Volume Spread, and Binary Price/Volume Indicator
Price and Total Volume With 50-period Moving Volume Average
Fibonacci Price Scale With Targets
The news on global economics continues to become more complicated for the USA. China and the US are seemingly now trading in separate regional spheres, and as China has expanded its belt and road projects, it trades more with developing nations than it does with the USA. The article I posted should be required reading. If war comes to Taiwan, China would control both the resources needed for semiconductors and the production facilities to make them. As China sells off it’s U.S. debt instruments, it may have less incentive to trade with the USA and become a contentious rival in many cases. Apple is feeling the pressure from this circumstance, even though service revenues are strong.
As unemployment data is to be released at 0830 EDT, the Fed and the media seem to be sanguine about the state of the economy, and yet more data comes out that seems to counter that narrative. Consumer credit card spending is falling sharply, and for bank credit is also declining to Great Recession levels. Credit card default rates are also the highest they’ve been since 1991. What could that mean for earnings in the future, once again, we could be hitting a bounce in earnings, but if the trends continue, there could be an end to the expansion cycle soon. I still believe that 2024 could bring some radical change in world economics, particularly if the war footing expands, but only time will tell.
For now, lets just go back to the MNQZ23 charts.
If MNQZ23 can rally above the 14949.75, it could have a relatively easy time recapturing the swing high of 15015.75 and heading to 15040.75 to 15072.25 by Monday, assuming buyers become aggressive again. If not, then a further decline below the swing low of 14924.25 could occur with the extremes likely being support around 14909, 14899.50 and perhaps 14867.75 by Monday.
I really have no strong opinion on whether unemployment data will spike volatility today. All I will do is focus on which way price and volume momentum are headed in context to the volume profile. There is still a great deal of room to the upside in the current MNQZ23 market environment, given a dearth of commercial holdings at those levels. Only time will tell what happens next.
I got bounced for 4 NQ point loss per contract as volume could never accelerate to the upside before I had to cease trading to pursue other business. No harm done. I will see what there is to trade today based on what fits my trade plan.
I will attempt to write this weekend, as I want to look at longer term pattern and volume profile analysis. We could be in for another rally or simply tread sideways until the hard earnings data and earnings forecasts can be defined.
That is it for me today. Have fun, make money, and have a pleasant weekend too!
Today’s Economic Data Courtesy of Trading Economics dot com. Be sure to refresh the date at the top left.
