Price, Price Spread, Lagged Price/Volume Spread, and Binary Price/Volume Indicator
Price and Total Volume With 50-period Moving Volume Average
Fibonacci Price Scale With Targets
I have limited time to write today and today I could write pages.
I was reading a linked in post from an options trader who was basically recommending that we all ignore the macroeconomic issues and trade whatever rally there. Since I am a day-trader who is making some incremental shifts to holding extended positions during the day (and perhaps beyond), I can understand the smash-and-grab mentality. Macroeconomic issues will, however, decide the fate of the U.S. economy and U.S. and world equity markets at least into the intermediate term, meaning perhaps for decades to come.
Being long equties could be very tenuous over time, because so many things are out of control. Consumer spending is tapped out and credit rates are tightening. That will eventually crush the American economy because people are running into debt and have no savings to spend, even on an as-needed basis. Forget about discretionary spending. People are living paycheck to paycheck even at highest income levels. Saving rates are now ZERO. Watch that video if you have nothing else to do today.
Bloomberg finally admits that there will in very short order be trillion dollar annual interest payments by the Federal government, which is higher than our defense budget. As Congress debates continuing resolutions which could add an additional 2 trillion dollars to an already exponentially spiraling Federal debt load, Moody’s rating service has turned negative on US Federal debt.
And talk about mis-allocation of resources, you think Chinese real estate expansion was a bad idea? Wait until you see Chinese solar energy technology production. This will even make Doomberg chuckle. There is an oversupply, a literal glut, of solar panels and associated equipment as a result of Chinese manufacturing. What makes this cycle interesting to me is that Europe (particularly Germany) is figuring out that solar cannot and will not ever be a source of concentrated base-loadable energy. Will there be a continued glut in solar-power-related manufacturing? Most rational energy analysts have figured out that wind energy is a total bust operationally and environmentally. Is solar power the next victim? Only time will tell.
This week’s trading, bullish or bearish, may indeed be predecated upon the inflation numbers we see on Tuesday’s inflation data and Wednesday’s PPI data. The one thing I think everyone, except perhaps Janet Yellen and the majority of the American Uniparty can agree on is that the current fiscal path of the United States is unsustainable and it is unsustainable at hyperbolic rates of economic destruction. I will not discuss the implications to the U.S. Dollar, as I have ranted about this ad nauseum, but bad things come if this continues.
Let’s dump this talk for now and look at the charts.
If MNQZ23 can rally beyond the 15558.50 VWAP line, it has a shot at rallying beyond the swing high at 15616.25, it has a good probability of rallying past 15645.25 and even 15682.25 by Tuesday. If not, MNQZ23 likely falls back to the swing low at 15509.50. Failing any support around 15490.50 should the swing low be broken through, it likely could take out 15480.50 and even 15443.50 by Tuesday. We will simply have to see how trading evolves as the data is revealed. No one knows for certain what will happen.
I picked up 22 NQ points long per contract on Friday. I will see if anything matches my trading plan rules this morning and trade for a couple of hours.
I hope everyone has a happy Monday and a profitable productive week!
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Today’s Economic Data Courtesy of Trading Economics dot com. Be sure to refresh the date at the top left.
I like that you hyperlinked "unsustainable" to the Dictionary.