Price, Price Spread, Lagged Price/Volume Spread, and Binary Price/Volume Indicator
Price and Total Volume With 50-period Moving Volume Average
Fibonacci Price Scale With Targets
The author apologizes in advance for the lateness of this post. In the rush to crash after a long day yesterday, I set the alarm improperly, and woke up 15 minutes late. It happens :D .
It appears that images of the Asia-Pacific seemed positive and yet despite hopes that tensions between the PRC and American corporations might warm up a bit as China promised to tear down limitations on foreign investment, but nothing of substance developed. Promises of collaboration and not war were exchanged between Chinese and Taiwanese leaders also, but proof will be seen in the coming months.
There were several articles in the Wall Street Journal regarding Chinese investments, but a couple of things are clear red flags, no pun intended. Accounting standards are still a bit lax relative to the U.S. generally accepted accounting principles (GAAP). The other issue is that the PRC in effect owns and controls all corporations, and the government can write off, write down, and eliminate profits, assets, and liabilities on a whim. Those issues would need to be addressed before serious investment in Chinese companies on the mainland should be considered. American pension funds are well aware of the damage to their assets done through their investments in Evergrande.
The crisis over real estate commissions continues as realtors fear that cooperative commissions will be eliminated as a result of a successful Missouri lawsuit, and that high-paying careers in that industry are over. On the other side of the transaction, boomers are now trying to escape their homes before values potentially collapse as interest rates rise.
Apparently, fund managers in the tech sector are unwinding shorts, and preparing for a soft landing. Fidelity lost its ability to form ETF style funds earlier in the year and are now re-registering to do so. Intel shares seem to be benefiting from optimism about its new chips, and that is bolstering the QQQs and MQNZ23.
But all the problems with money printing and with Federal debt still remain. As Moody’s rating of U.S. Federal debt is now negative, foreign investors, sovereign and individual, are looking elsewhere. As the printing presses at the U.S. Treasury whir with blinding speed, the specter of inflation will give pause to investors seeking U.S. government debt. The problems are not over, and rate increases, combined with the plans of BRICS nations to create their own commodity-backed currency could ultimately devastate the American standard of living in unimaginable ways, at least by American standards.
Let’s get back to the charts.
If MNQZ23 can rally past the 15892.75 VWAP line, then it has ample odds of taking out the swing high at 15919 and could rally to 15952 and 15984 by Monday. If not, and the 15865 VWAP line support area is taking out and sellers became aggressive, the swing low at 15797 could be taken out, leading to a pullback to 15764.75 and 15722.75. There is a dearth of commerical holdings above or below this current price action around 15982.75, so anything could happen, depending on who shows up to trade.
The squishy nature of volume activity yesterday caused me to take a 10 NQ point loss on the long side, so I just shut down and went about other business yesterday morning. Should a trade set up look favorable to my trade plan, then I will trade again today.
That is all for me today. If I see something dramatic in the price patterns or volume profile, I will write this weekend, but I may have to attend to other business as well, as I am incredibly busy at the moment.
I greatly appreciate the growth in subscribers. I will do what I can to expand what I cover as time allows. This Substack was created as a selfish project to journal trades, but it has slowly caught on. It has become a bit more than that now, and I will have to make decisions on how to continue it.
Have a productive profitable Friday and an enjoyable weekend!
Today’s Economic Data Courtesy of Trading Economics dot com. Be sure to refresh the date at the top left.
Great analysis!!!