Price, Price Spread, Lagged Price/Volume Spread, and Binary Price/Volume Indicator
Price and Total Volume With 50-period Moving Volume Average
Fibonacci Price Scale With Targets
I am back again from a break to get a bit reorganized and to focus on the coming quarter’s workload with new business.
It looks like Black Friday sales were decent overall. While that seems like a positive development for retail, consumer credit is strained as American consumer savings dwindle toward zero. That cannot continue if the American consumer economy is to remain healthy. The other issues of concern are severe differences in not prospects for income. I deeply dislike the term income inequality. If there were income equality, we would all be serfs, using a social credit system, likely living in a police state, as the PRC is for the average Chinese citizens. What is different is that wage declines relative to inflation have damaged the ability of individuals to save money. That leads to deep divides in terms of general wealth and financial mobility, as shown in this graph. This is particularly exacerbated by monetary inflation, which has driven houses beyond affordability for the average American family, and since so many locked in low-interest-rate 30-year mortgages, housing inventory is tight. This video covers this topic.
That leads some analysts to worry about long-term growth prospects, and as costs continue to rise, that leads to a rise in commodity prices like gold. Gold has hit a six-month high and could be on a major breakout above $2000 an ounce. The economic circumstances for the average consumer are still up in the air.
Prospects for Tesla and other EV makers are souring for some of the same reasons as housing, and because there seems to be a disconnect between the manufacturers and government to the fact that these vehicles are not affordable and that, as Doomberg has mentioned time and time again, these vehicles are not “green” at all, as they use power from utility plants, which if you ascribe the the “green lobby” narrative, pollute the air with greenhouse gasses. There will likely be a reckoning of valuations for these companies as the coming months progress based on what true prospects are. Authoritarian force to make consumers buy them likely will not meet the economic and raw material realities of EV use, as there is not enough copper on the planet to build charging stations.
For your general reading and viewing here are topics you can review. There is angst over all that is happening at Open AI and Microsoft, described here. There seems to be progress in the Israel-Gaza conflict. In tech news, TikTok is now fully onboard with an e-commerce angle and wants to challenge Amazon with video advertising. On a negative note, Facebook’s Instagram continues to be used in nefarious ways for pedophiles, something it seems Facebook is turning a blind eye to. Then there is the issue of new respiratory diseases in China. Things continue to be crazy in 2023.
Let’s move on to the charts. I may discuss the above topics in greater depth later.
If MNQZ23 can rally above 15981.50, it has a shot at running back to 16000.50 and perhaps even 16017.50 and even 16038.75 by Tuesday. If buyers become aggressive, then we could break above the VWAP lines extending to 16065.50, but only time will tell. If MNQZ23 does not break above 15981.50, then it could be a relatively short trip back to 15938.75 and could fall back to 15922 and 15900.50 by Tuesday. Housing data comes out today and more general economic data this week will provide an indication of the prospects for any Santa Claus rally this year.
I did trade on Wednesday and Friday, picking up 19 NQ points profit long and 18 points profit short per contract respectively.
That is all for me today. Thanks for continuing support of this Subtack. Have a pleasant and profitable Monday!
Today’s Economic Data Courtesy of Trading Economics dot com. Be sure to refresh the date at the top left.
