Price, Price Spread, Lagged Price/Volume Spread, and Binary Price/Volume Indicator
Price and Total Volume With 50-period Moving Volume Average
Fibonacci Price Scale With Targets
It seems that we may have had a record Cyber Monday to add to hefty Black Friday sales. Consumers who continue to rack up record credit card debt, do so, however, in the midst of collapsing savings. What I think is fascinating, having worked with an ill-fated private label operation myself in 2023, is that people are figuring out what online and now retail sellers are doing, and yet online sales continue to explode. The technique involves raising prices and then lowering them to demonstrate a “lower price” for Black Friday or Cyber Monday. The reason no one crashes stores on Black Friday is that the vast majority of people shop by phone now, and that really doesn’t give retail stores any incentive to move prices. Apparently, this individual has not been paying attention. Physical retail sales are dying in America and the retailers didn’t send this guy the memo.
As someone mentioned to me yesterday, and I agree with him, is that with inflation is driving essentials out of the budgets of middle-class America, as, surprisingly, this Bloomberg article indicates. One of the things it indicates, in opposition to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, is that car insurance costs were up 33%, yet insurance costs were indicated last month in year-over-year statistics to be DOWN 34%. My own health insurance costs were up nearly 24%, so if you think inflation is falling, you should be receiving a wake-up call soon. Seemingly institutions and traders think the problem is gone, as many analysts believe that rates will have steep cuts in 2024. My contention based on common sense and knowledge of current methods of Congressional budgeting is that when there are no caps on spending and the spending is predicated on printing money to fund things from migrant payments to war, there will be no end to inflationary pressures. Anyone who thinks inflation is transitory has no understanding of basic economics, let alone Austrian economic theory and practice.
As a result of this contentiousness over inflation, the bulls and bears will be fighting it out like Nature Boy Rick Flair and Sting did in a Texas-style cage match. We will find out more this week when GDP data and core PCE data are released tomorrow and Thursday respectively. I think the revelation of that data will project how much of a Santa Claus rally we get and provide future ideas about how Q1 2024 pans out.
We can discuss this further at another time. Let’s look at the charts.
MNQZ23 weakened a bit overnight, perhaps in profit-taking over recent rallies, but Europe seemed to be buying again before the 0500 EDT hour. If MNQ23 can rally beyond the 16008.25 VWAP line, then there is ample chance for prices to rise above the swing high at 16013 and perhaps take out 16030.25 and even 16052 should the 16049 VWAP line be taken out. If not, it might not take long for MNQZ23 to fall back to the 15949.75 swing low, and beyond to 15932.50 and perhaps even to 15910.75. The path of least resistance is to the downside today, as there are commercial holdings above the 16008.25 VWAP line. All of that could be rearranged in either direction based on PCE data or GDP data if it surprises the markets. We will simply have to watch it, as no one can be certain as to the outcome of any reaction.
I picked up another 16 NQ points per contract long yesterday morning, and I went on to other business. Volume was crazy in both directions, but I waited to confirm the breakout, set a reasonable long target, and let the market take me out with a profit on a limit order. Hopefully, that trend will continue. My trade plan is focused on making that happen every day.
That’s all for today. Have a fantastically profitable and happy Tuesday!
Today’s Economic Data Courtesy of Trading Economics dot com. Be sure to refresh the date at the top left.
As far as I can see, and I'm no expert, just an observer, we've been in an ever-growing recession since 9/11/2001. Life has never been the same since the destruction of those buildings. There are ups and downs, etc….. But mostly, what I've experienced compared to pre-9/11 is nothing except recession. That's why you see homeless people everywhere. That's just my opinion. Thank you for your deeper insight.