Price, Price Spread, Lagged Price/Volume Spread, and Binary Price/Volume Indicator
Price and Total Volume With 50-period Moving Volume Average
Fibonacci Price Scale With Targets
The world is still cray-cray, so that is consistent I guess. Gaza and Israel resume conflict despite attempts to extend a ceasefire. What could make that significant is that in previous days, OPEC+ partners tied to Saudi Arabia could not decide on what new oil production cuts could be made perhaps to pressure a settlement, causing oil to stall out at around $80/barrel. Will the continuance of conflict lead to unity on production cuts? We will simply have to watch.
Tesla revealed its Cybertruck yesterday. The question is, can anyone afford it? With a range of 225 miles, its effective range might make it difficult to haul a boat to your favorite lake and back. It can accelerate faster to 60 miles per hour towing a Porshe 911 than the Porshe 911 can accelerate on its own to that same speed. That may be cool, but cool and long-term performance is another issue and only time and market acceptance will tell the tale. At $60,000+ for a standard model ($20,000 over the estimated retail price as projected in 2019), it faces an uphill battle. Millennials and GenZ-ers are tapped out on savings. They might rather “doom spend” than buy expensive vehicles or make a downpayment on a house. That could explain the spectacular Black Friday and Cyber Monday sales for online retailers. We will get more results in Q1 2024.
In the PRC, China’s production data surprised analysts to the upside, but there is still concern about foreign investment in China related to China’s stance on Taiwan and the geopolitical risks associated with it. I have limited time to write in the next eight weeks, but if things settle, perhaps I can devote an article to this topic. The risks of world war have never been higher in this era. It seems like the late 1930s in many respects.
Lastly, can you determine which images are real or artificial-intelligence-generated? This article discusses Google’s inability to determine which images are real and which are AI-generated. What is scary about this is that some of the premier creators of this technology are linked to the Chinese military. What is even scarier than that is that whistleblowers in the UK and the US have revealed that the British military was deeply involved in social media censorship in previous US election cycles and that this censorship continues to this day. With so much censorship and the creation of false narratives that have plagued U.S. media for at least the last 20 years, one has to wonder if anything one sees in media is truthful or even real. We learned yesterday that information about inflation was being censored by the U.S. government, so can we even believe economic statistics? The mind boggles and the 2024 election is straight ahead.
Let’s get to the charts. As I have the time, I can write further about economics at another time.
If MNQZ23 can remain above 15981.50, it has a good chance of taking out the swing high at 16000.75, and if it can push past the VWAP line at 16052.75, it has a chance to take out both 16035 and 16081 by Monday if buyers become active. If not, I think it could be a fairly quick trip back to at least 15898. If that support fails, it should be a rather short journey back to 15870.75. If selling remains aggressive, it could fall back further to 15835.50 and 15790.50 by Monday. It’s hard to know if traders will take it easy or not today and because the gaps in commercial holdings are wide on both sides of the volume profile, anything can happen.
I took a 6 NQ point loss per contract short on three trades that could have yielded 100 NQ points profit yesterday. My rules regarding volume bounces worked against me, but I still did not suffer a large loss. I will saddle up again today to see if anything matches up to my trade rules.
That is all for today. I will try to cover some charts this weekend if price movements merit a write-up, which they probably do. Have a very productive, profitable, and happy Friday! Thanks again for supporting this Substack.
Today’s Economic Data Courtesy of Trading Economics dot com. Be sure to refresh the date at the top left.
