Price, Price Spread, Lagged Price/Volume Spread, and Binary Price/Volume Indicator
Price and Total Volume With 50-period Moving Volume Average
Fibonacci Price Scale With Targets
The soft landing versus recession debate continues. Durable goods prices seem now to be declining if one believes the data, yet elevated prices for cars, homes, and insurance ( which is in direct conflict with BLS inflation data that estimated insurance costs had fallen 34%) continue climbing. Even though $SPX earnings may be slowing a bit if estimates are right, small companies are in far worse shape, particularly those in the Russell 2000, where 40% of those companies are losing money. The other scary thing, which if I have time this week I will investigate further, is that on an inflation-adjusted basis, mortgage delinquencies are at the same level as they were at the peak in 2008. We will begin to see how the effects of this data unravel as 2024 begins. The outcomes are yet unclear but they do look a bit worrisome at this point.
COP28 seems a bit farcical, as discussed by Doomberg over the weekend. While Bill Gates frets that our world will go beyond his “warming targets”, COP28’s president states that no science behind the phase-out of fossil fuels (and he’s right, as most of the third world and the sane first world need it to stay warm and to keep industry running, as Germany is finding out). China knows it too, as it set up to crank out two new coal plants every week. At least their serfs will be warm, fed, and working, while the West considers insect protein and non-base-loadable renewables in the same way that created Europe’s energy crisis today. I hope the EU and the USA do not become Texas in the winter of 2021. Cows of the world, UNITE!
World tensions continue, not only in the Middle East but in Ukraine, but also between China and the USA. Tensions generally can be read about here, but of late China has been taking a more hostile stance in the South China Sea. And while the U.S. Congress has decided to cooperate with China on joint military contacts, including artificial intelligence, it seems China is not answering our phone calls to begin cooperation as it had supposedly agreed to in the Asia Pacific Summit recently.
The world is nuts as usual. We will come back to these topics later. Let’s look at the charts.
If MNQZ23 remains above 15962, it has a very good chance of blowing out the 16050 swing high and can even reach 16100.50 and perhaps 16164.75 by Tuesday if buying is active. If not, it could be a very quick trip back to the swing low at 15864.50 and back to 15814 and even 15749.75 by Tuesday if sellers dominate trading. There is a ton of room above and below the current price ranges, so anything can happen.
It took a 6 NQ point loss on Friday as volume was variable at the open, and I missed the later break out as I had other work to do. I will be back again this morning to see if anything matches my trade plan.
Have a happy Monday and go make money and make progress on your goals! Thanks once again for supporting this Subtack!
Today’s Economic Data Courtesy of Trading Economics dot com. Be sure to refresh the date at the top left.
