Price, Price Spread, Lagged Price/Volume Spread, and Binary Price/Volume Indicator
Price and Total Volume With 50-period Moving Volume Average
Fibonacci Price Scale With Targets
The world is still a crazy place this morning. The Israel-Gaza war continues expansion, just as the USA pours more money into the corrupt dealings in Ukraine. While we continue to pour billions into a failed conflict there, one in which one candidate, Nikki Haley, claimed was to support democracy, Mr. Zelenskky had one of his primary political opponents in a coming election assassinated. When you cancel elections in Ukraine, why not eliminate any political opposition too? The mind boggles.
It also seems that in the USA, the soft landing so many pundits (and some bureaucrats) are praying for might be a little harder than anticipated if data holds up. As tech stocks reach all-time nosebleed levels of valuation versus small caps, it appears that the long era of Japanese zero-interest rate policy is coming to an end. With U.S. debt spiraling and our credit rating being negative, there will be pressure for higher U.S. interest rates to pay for our runaway spending spree. That will pressure stock prices and the economy as borrowing becomes more difficult. Small business loans are approaching rates of 10%, and in another sign of economic weakness, employment in trucking is beginning a decline, which shows weakness in the supply chain. Even McKinsey Group consultant partners are being reduced, which is a signal of decline in corporate excess before economic slowdowns.
In China, imports declined 0.6% in U.S. dollar terms while exports increased, and that is an indicator that China’s economic slowdown is not over. What is also interesting is that Alibaba’s performance is also in decline as upstarts like PDD begin to capture share. A great number of Alibaba’s management talent have been removed by the Chinese government. As we all know ( as should Elon Musk), under the SOES system, you do not own your business, you are just a minor stakeholder ( as opposed to a shareholder ). The government ultimately owns your business in the PRC.
In other tech developments, AMD has introduced its new enterprise AI chips, along with hefty sales forecasts. 2024 will be the beginning of AI chip wars (as if there never were one). I think competition is good as long as governments do not tip the scales. Government interference will be a component in these developments since most of them want to use AI to increase political power as much as industrial power and research.
SpaceX has an IPO out shortly. We will see just how robust that is, given the changing priorities in space exploration. It is also largely funded by the government, and in the case of the United States, a bankrupt government. Meta is also encrypting Messenger, which increases suspicion about the company’s protection of illegal and unsavory activity.
I could write more about a ton of topics, but time is short. Let’s look at the charts.
If MNQZ23 can rally above 15865, it has a good shot at taking out 15888.75 and perhaps can rally to 15915 and 15948.50 by Friday. If that doesn’t happen and if sellers become aggressive, then it will be a short trip back to 15791.25 and perhaps beyond that to 15764.75 and 15731 by Friday. There are limited commercial holdings below the current price range, but not all that many above the current price range either. We will simply have to watch price and volume action to determine which side if any wins.
On Tuesday, I made 27 NQ points per contract long but proceeded to be booted at the shorting opportunity yesterday and lost 20 NQ points per contract short. There was still a net gain, but I will have to watch entries a bit closer at entries.
That is all for me today! Have a wonderful Thursday.
Today’s Economic Data Courtesy of Trading Economics dot com. Be sure to refresh the date at the top left.
